Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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657 FXUS63 KUNR 222335 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 535 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Warming back up this week with little to no precipitation expected other than some sprinkles/showers Monday && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1259 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Fairly quiet pattern this week as the western NOAM ridge rebuilds and supports warmer temps with mainly dry weather. The only exception will be a passing upper trough and cool front Monday, which could support some isolated showers. Sfc high exiting the region this afternoon with SE return flow increasing across the region. Upper trough will advect into the region Monday and support increasing clouds and a few showers. This system will be fighting a lot of dry air, but will have a enough lift to support isolated afternoon showers/sprinkles across the SD plains. Any precip amounts will be very light. Cool front will shift through the region in the afternoon, supporting a period of breezy NW winds, esp on the NW SD Plains. After Monday, mean ridging can be expected through the rest of the week with temps trending above normal. Temps will be back in the 80s (few 90s) most places by the middle of the week, under dry conds. The pattern then becomes muddled by the end of next weekend as a potent upper trough moves into southern Canada, with a plethora of different solutions as to how this system evolves, all likely hinging on the location of the expected closed upper low over the SE CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 534 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Dye