Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
088 FXUS65 KVEF 130857 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 157 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Expect only slight relief from the heat today with high temperatures around 2 to 3 degrees cooler. In addition, there will be increasing clouds and shower chances over the Sierra and across parts of Mohave County this afternoon and evening. Hotter weather settles in over the area Friday and especially Saturday before a broad trough brings real relief from the heat early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday. A low pressure system off the coast of Southern California has been cutoff from the main flow and spinning stagnant for several days finally gets ejected northeastward today. This is due to a combination of shortwave energy, associated with an expansive low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska, approaching the Northwest Coast along with a high pressure system centered over New Mexico and northern Mexico. The shortwave nudge combined with the anticyclonic spin of the high pressure system helps direct the low into the Desert Southwest and across our area today. They system will have some weak jet energy associated with it as well as increasing moisture over the Sierra and northern portions of Inyo and Esmeralda counties as well as Mohave County. PWAT anomalies in these areas are forecast to be in the range of 150-180% of normal. The moisture coupled with instability from both the system itself and daytime heating will increase the chances for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, we are looking for widespread breezy winds in the 15-25 mph range this afternoon with increasing clouds over Mohave County and parts of our northwest CWA. This batch of clouds is forecast to pass over eastern Clark and eastern Lincoln counties this evening. High temperatures this afternoon will continue to be hot however, 2 or 3 degrees cooler then Wednesday. The low pressure system moves east of the area on Friday with shortwave ridging settling over the area behind it leading to a slight increase in temperatures. Winds overall are expected to be lighter on Friday with the exception of our far western areas including the Sierra and parts of the Owens Valley and Western Mojave Desert area where gusts of 20-30 mph are forecast. Saturday will bring the heat once again with increasing upper level southwest winds in response to an energetic shortwave passing across the PacNW. High temperatures are forecast to climb near 110 degrees in Las Vegas once again with major impacts from heat risk raising its ugly head once again in some lower elevation locations. This increase in heat risk levels is short-lived however and confined to this one single day so with 2 stronger events already under our belt, this one begs for more of an increased messaging response versus a heat product headline. This concept can be reevaluated by the next forecast shift. Southwest winds develop in our area on Saturday with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph expected in the afternoon with stronger gusts of 25-35 mph across the western parts of San Bernardino County. Winds do not appear to be significant enough to justify any wind headlines, at this time. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday. A cooler weather patten is likely for the beginning of next week as a trough digs into the Western US. ECMWF EFIs highlights this well with a increasing signal for below normal max and min temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty still in exact temperatures models continue try to resolve how strong and deep the trough will dig, but a trough of some flavor is being highlighted on all long range model camps so cooler temperatures are expected. Winds are the other concern with the trough. While exact wind impacts will depend on the exact setup of the upper level trough, increasing winds possible early next week. Fire weather will also be a concern as it will remain dry with the increasing winds. Pinning down exact wind strength and the time period for the strongest winds is still uncertain, though there is a decent signal in probabilities for win gusts over 40 MPH in the Barstow area and western Mojave Desert. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds this morning may briefly increase to 7-10 knots from 140-160 degrees 17Z-19Z followed by winds from 180-200 degrees gusting 15-20 knots 19Z-03Z. Speeds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset and become light and variable early Friday morning. No significant clouds. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...South-southwest winds will increase this afternoon across most of the region with gusts generally 20-25 knots. Speeds will decrease less than 10 knots around sunset and remain light overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will develop over portions of northwest Arizona this afternoon and also the southern Sierra near KBIH. There is a 30-50 percent chance of gusts over 30 knots near any precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salmen LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter