397
FXUS62 KCAE 252355
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
755 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the forecast area
resulting in chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow. Another, more organized system
is expected to cross the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with
additional chances for thunderstorms. Drier weather is expected
to return Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorm coverage has diminished across the area late this
afternoon and into the evening. However, shortwave energy
moving through the region and remnant outflow boundaries have
sparked a few new thunderstorms across the forecast area. Much
like the activity earlier today, these cells appear of the pulse
variety. Not anticipating anything severe, but there remains
about 2000 J/kg of CAPE over the eastern portions of the
forecast area. This may allow a stronger storm to produce some
hail and/or stronger winds. The thunderstorm coverage and
intensity should reduce after we lose daytime heating in the
next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A flat H5 ridge axis is forecast to move across the region on
Sunday. Subsidence underneath the ridge axis should be an
inhibiting factor for convection initiation, especially for the
central and southern Midlands as well as the CSRA. The Northern
Midlands could be close enough to disturbances moving into the
Mid Atlantic States for a greater chance of convection. The
atmosphere remains moist and unstable area wide with afternoon
SBCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/KG and PW values around 1.5
inches.

The Eastern U.S. undergoes a major pattern changes Memorial Day
through Tuesday with an unseasonably strong upper low moving into
the Great Lakes region. The Midlands and CSRA will begin to
experience H5 height falls on Memorial Day and continue into
Tuesday. An unstable and moist airmass will be over the region on
Memorial Day with afternoon SBCAPE values around 2000 J/KG and PW
values up to 1.75 inches. A cold front approaches the region in the
late afternoon or evening time frame. The forcing is not lined up
time wise with the best instability. SPC has our region in a
Marginal Risk of severe weather on Memorial Day with a Slight Risk
over much of North Carolina. The Slight Risk could be extended
southward during the next update. Damaging wind gusts are the
primary concern.

A cold front moves across the region Monday Night before stalling
offshore on Tuesday. PW values decrease to below one inch during the
day with dew points dropping into the 50s. If this forecast solution
verifies, cooler and much drier conditions push into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensembles depict a high probability of much below normal H5 heights
across the Eastern U.S. next week. This should allow Canadian
surface high pressure to move into the region Tuesday Night through
the end of the week. Temperatures and dew points should be below
normal with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected although some early morning fog or
stratus is possible late tonight...at AGS.

Weak surface trough across the area with ridge offshore. Convection
moving well east of the terminals at 00z. Satellite showing
mainly mid level clouds in the wake of the convection. winds
will become light and variable overnight. Lamp and HRRR guidance
is suggesting some MVFR fog near AGS late tonight and early
Sunday. Ridge offshore Sunday and expect southwest winds 5 to 10
knots. The air mass will be moderately unstable again. A flat
upper ridge will be over the area and overall thunderstorm
threat appears lower with Convective models suggesting
thunderstorms will focus north of the terminals in the
afternoon. However, can`t rule out isolated thunderstorms near
the terminals after 18z with scattered cumulus.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Monday
afternoon in scattered thunderstorms as a cold front approaches.
Otherwise, significant restrictions not expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$