165
FXUS62 KCAE 091844
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
244 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on
Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure will move in for the weekend. The high will move
offshore Monday and increasing moisture will support showers and
thunderstorms returning for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main area of convection has pushed south of the area this
afternoon. While there will still be some lingering showers and
a rumble of thunder or two at times as a shortwave at upper
levels passes by, the main threat of any severe weather has
ended for today. Clouds will keep temps much cooler this
afternoon than the past few days.

This evening will start out partly cloudy, but clouds and
moisture will be on the increase again overnight as another
shortwave moves eastward through the southeastern states.
Scattered thunderstorms could return to the CSRA by sunrise,
although the short term CAM models are already struggling with
today`s convective trends, so confidence is not great in any
particular solution. Temps will be seasonable overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...Thunderstorms will be approaching the Savannah River
around dawn and should move through the remainder of the CWA
from west to east during the morning hours, exiting the eastern
area around noon. The threat for severe weather is lower with
less available instability expected Friday morning. During the
afternoon, the cold front will move through. This could bring
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

Friday night...There may be a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms in the far east for a few hours in the evening,
but then drier and cooler air will move in for the remainder of
Friday night as the cold front moves offshore and high pressure
builds in behind the front. Temperatures will be about 10
degrees cooler.

Saturday and Saturday night...Mostly clear skies will prevail
under high pressure with temps running just a little below
normal.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be another dry day, with light winds and temps
warming up again close to normal.

Monday...high pressure will move offshore, bringing low level
southerly and mid level southwesterly flow. This will increase
temps a bit, but also increase moisture in the form of clouds
and maybe some late day showers.

Tuesday...An upper low will be moving through the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday, with an upper trof trailing to the south. This will
trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be a
little below normal due to the significant cloud cover and
occasional rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Additional scattered afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected as more weak
disturbances move by in the southwesterly flow aloft. Timing of
these is traditionally difficult this far out, so details will
be changeable as we get into next week.



&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather pattern will continue across the Midlands and
CSRA through Friday.

Current radar trends show showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm still possible at the TAF sites, especially at
AGS/DNL/OGB this afternoon through 20Z. Have included a tempo
group for a stronger shower producing lower vsbys at both
AGS/DNL. After this cluster of showers moved east of the
Terminals this afternoon, skies will remain rather cloudy, but
conditions should remain VFR for the evening and early overnight
hours. There is potential for restrictions late tonight/early
Friday morning with abundant moisture across the region. Model
time sections show abundant low level moisture but with some low
level wind overnight. Could see a period of MVFR conditions due
to vsbys and ceilings. At this time, just put in a period of
MVFR vsbys for all TAF sits beginning around 10Z. Another issue
is the potential for another system that could bring shra/tsra
from the early morning hours into midday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and
associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather
with no restrictions likely for this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...