009
FXUS65 KMSO 061824
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1224 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure remains on track to bring warm/hot
temperatures across the Northern Rockies through this upcoming
weekend into the middle part of next week. High temperatures will
reach into the 80s across western MT valleys, with the lowest
elevations in central Idaho eclipsing the 90 degree mark.

Atmospheric moisture will increase late Saturday into Sunday as a
upper level trough, embedded within southwesterly flow, moves
across Oregon into central Montana. Cloud cover will increase as
convection develops across southern Idaho Saturday evening, with
activity shifting northward into the Northern Rockies Sunday. The
lack of dynamic forcing, wind shear, and deeper instability, will
limit the threat of any strong or severe thunderstorms.
Nonetheless, brief heavy rain and/or gusty outflow winds will be
the primary storm concerns. The highest (30-40%) probabilities for
storm development peak across Lemhi County and southwest Montana.
Lesser confidence exists for storm development along and north of
the I-90 corridor, with probabilities for thunderstorms
decreasing to 15-20%.

A secondary disturbance will move along the US/Canadian border
Monday afternoon and evening, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing. Activity will focus across northwest
Montana and along the Continental Divide.

Dry conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday next week as high
pressure rebounds under a southwest-west flow pattern. Breezy
winds will develop each afternoon and evening with valleys seeing
gusts of 15-25 mph. Higher gusts of 25-35 mph will impact the
higher terrain, especially in northwest Montana.

In the far extended, model ensemble clusters (~80% of membership)
are hinting at the return of another trough of low pressure
across much of the western U.S. June 16-18. Significant
uncertainty remains with the timing and evolution of the trough
as it approaches the western U.S. during this period.
Nonetheless, a significant heatwave through the middle of June
seems highly unlikely. /Lukinbeal

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Westerly gusts of 15-25kts
will decrease between 07/0100-0300Z, with winds becoming light
and variable overnight. /Lukinbeal

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$