520
FXUS64 KTSA 010451
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 917 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mid-level low/shortwave trough has shifted northeast of the
forecast area and is currently centered over southwest MO. Wrap-
around moisture and an apparent low/mid-level boundary on the
southeast side of the low continues to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly affecting portions of far eastern OK and
into northwest AR. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease
and move eastward through at least midnight (perhaps an hour or
two beyond midnight across far northwest AR) as the mid-level
trough continues to lift northeastward. A few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out, though any thunderstorm activity should be
relatively short-lived. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light,
on the order of a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch
under heavier showers/storms.

After midnight, patchy to areas of fog will be the main focus for
the forecast area. Latest model guidance suggests increasing fog
development, first forming across far northeast OK and far
northwest AR, then spreading westward/southwestward through the
overnight hours. There remains some uncertainty on exact coverage
and density of the fog at this time. As the mid-level trough
continues to lift northeastward, surface winds will further
decrease and dewpoint depressions are expected to shrink through
and after midnight. Went ahead and maintained widespread patchy
fog across the forecast area, mostly after 3 AM, but did include
areas of fog for northeast OK, far northwest AR, and locations
near the Red River a few hours on either side of sunrise Saturday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A relatively quiet day in the recent unsettled pattern
anticipated Saturday, though there is some suggestion in model
data of a weak remnant circulation associated with any more
organized clusters of storms maintained overnight tonight, could
drift over the region. Most CAM solutions do develop at least
isolated storms across parts of the area, but coverage would
likely remain quite limited. A somewhat higher chance of a storm
complex maintaining into eastern OK Sunday morning continues to
be suggested, albeit in a weakening state.

The unsettled pattern continues early next week, with an overall
trend toward hotter and more humid conditions. Some potential
continues for a few more days for storm complexes to organize to
the west and move into the area, with Sunday night into Monday
still looking like the period of highest probability at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Ongoing storms across NW AR are likely to wane and gradually move
east over the next several hours with minimal impact to local
terminals. Otherwise, a widely varying mix of cloud heights and
eventual fog development will complicate the forecast through the
mid morning hours. Thereafter, a trend toward rising ceilings
and/or eroding fog will lead to VFR conditions by afternoon. Any
afternoon storm coverage is expected to remain too isolated to
warrant mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  85  67  87 /  10  10  10  30
FSM   66  86  68  88 /  30  10  10  30
MLC   64  85  67  86 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   59  83  63  86 /  10  10  10  30
FYV   62  83  63  86 /  30  10  10  30
BYV   63  82  63  87 /  50  10  10  30
MKO   63  83  67  84 /  20  10  10  30
MIO   62  82  63  84 /  20  10  10  30
F10   62  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  30
HHW   65  83  68  84 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07