386
FXUS65 KVEF 142146
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will begin to lower to around normal by mid-week.

* Gusty southwest winds will lead to areas of critical fire weather
  concerns Tuesday afternoon across portions of central Nevada.

* Monsoonal moisture will return to the region during the second
  half of the week, bringing increased chances for afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Temperatures will peak across the region today with afternoon highs
averaging 5 to 8 degrees above normal.  Widespread Moderate (Level 2
of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk will be seen across the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert this afternoon. The Extreme
Heat Warning remains in effect for Death Valley National Park, Clark
County, and the Lake Mead National Recreation Area through this
evening, along with the Heat Advisory for the southern Great Basin.
A weak area of low pressure will drop into the Pacific Northwest
tonight and Tuesday which will help to suppress the high and begin
the trend of cooler temperatures across the region. Tuesday`s high
temperatures will trend downward 2-3 degrees, but then drop another
4-6 degrees on Wednesday, putting the entire forecast area into the
Minor to Moderate HeatRisk levels. Much of the region will continue
to experience hazy skies as smoke from area wildfires remains
trapped under the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat.

By mid to late week a weak cut-off area of low pressure will develop
off Baja California, which will help to transport increased moisture
into the region by the second half of the week. There is still quite
a bit of uncertainty about how much moisture will make it into the
area. Still, isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting on
Wednesday across Mohave County, and then possibly moving into the
Las Vegas area Thursday and Friday.  This increased moisture, along
with lower 500mb heights, will also allow temperatures to fall to
near or even slightly below normal levels by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
East to occasional southeast winds are expected into this evening
with winds generally 8-10kt with occasional gusts to around 15kt.
Winds will gradually diminish around 03z and then shift to the
southwest around 8kt overnight. VFR conditions expected at the
terminal, with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Peach
Springs corridor through sunset. Wildfire smoke aloft will remain in
the skies. Temperature will remain above 100 degrees through 06Z,
peaking around 112 degrees. Temperatures will again exceed 100
degrees Tuesday from 17Z through 05Z and peaking at 110 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00z Forecast Package...Winds will be mainly
from the south to southwest today, except where terrain dictates
otherwise, with gusts of 15 to 25 knots common around the region.
Wildfire smoke aloft will remain in the skies, with VFR conditions
expected at the surface. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon over portions of northwest Arizona. Winds will diminish
after sunset with most areas seeing wind speeds 10kt or less. Wind
speeds will increase by late morning and afternoon with most TAF
sites seeing south to southwest winds 15kt to 25kt. There will also
be a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms over northwest Arizona
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A short wave moving through the Great Basin will
bring gusty southwest winds to portions of the southern Great Basin
on Tuesday. This, along with afternoon relative humidity values of 7
to 14 percent, will result in critical fire weather conditions
across Nevada Fire Weather Zone 461 and 462. The Fire Weather Watch
has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Zone 461 and Zone 462
has also been added to the warning. Gusty south winds are also
expected along the lower Colorado River Valley Tuesday afternoon
leading to some enhanced fire weather concerns, but at time winds
are expected to remain below Red Flag Criteria.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow/Planz
AVIATION...Gorelow
FIRE WEATHER...Gorelow

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