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923
FXUS61 KAKQ 241905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening. A surface trough will affect the region Saturday into
Saturday evening. A warm front followed by a cold front will
affect the area late Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms pose a threat of heavy rainfall and
  isolated strong wind gusts through this evening.

- Fog development is expected tonight.

Showers and storms have formed across nrn portions of the forecast
area in advance of a slowly (southward) moving frontal boundary
(currently over the nrn Mid-Atlantic). While storms have been mainly
sub-severe, very weak flow, PWATs of 1.5-1.7", and ~1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE has led to a few nearly stationary storms producing quite
efficient rainfall rates. This has prompted at least one flash flood
warning on the Northern Neck. Should also note that steep low-level
lapse rates (and thus high 0-3km CAPE) and remnant vorticity from
the nearby boundary could allow for a few benign funnel clouds
through this aftn (especially N). While earlier rainfall over SE
portions of the area led to some stabilization, expect some airmass
recovery and building instability over the next few hrs. Thus,
additional storms are expected to develop and slowly slide S into
this evening. CAMs focus the highest coverage along and just E of
the I-95 corridor into the adjacent I-64 corridor, as well as
along/near the Albemarle Sound. Main threat will be heavy rain (and
isolated flooding), but cannot rule out an isolated severe wind gust
given the steep low-level lapse rates. Organized severe is not
expected given weak deep-layer shear. Highs this aftn will top out
in the upper 70s or lower 80s. Coverage of storms wanes considerably
after 8 PM and especially after midnight. Lows tonight drop into the
low-mid 60s. Given weak winds and dew points remaining into the 60s,
most guidance is honing in on fog development tonight, which could
become locally dense at times.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

- Isolated showers and storms continue through the weekend.

- More widespread thunderstorms expected Memorial Day with a
  cold front. A few storms could be strong to severe.

The front will lift back N on Saturday as a weak front front.
Overall, there should be lower coverage of storms Saturday given
weaker forcing with transient ridging aloft. However, weak lee
troughing should focus widely scattered storms along and E of
the Appalachians. A few of these storms could approach the wrn
edge of our CWA. Generally cut back on PoPs with the official
forecast showing 30% W of I-95, 20% E of I-95, and less than 15%
on the Eastern Shore. No severe wx is expected. Highs will be
warmer, ranging from the lower 80s along the coast to the mid-
upper 80s inland. There will also be more sun. Any remnant
showers dissipate with the loss of heating. Overnight lows Sat
in the 60s with at least some additional potential for fog.

A shortwave slides from the OH River Valley into the Great Lakes
Sunday. However, coverage of storms again looks on the low side
given the lack of any sfc triggers. Will have 20% PoPs for the wrn
2/3rds of the area and 15% or less further E. Highs will be in the
mid-upper 80s, with perhaps a few readings approaching 90F across
interior VA and NC.

Anomalous upper troughing will push a cold front toward the region
on Monday (Memorial Day). This favors higher coverage of showers and
storms, with some potential for strong-severe storms if the FROPA
timing is aligned with the daytime heating window. GFS/ECMWF both
show surface-based CAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg, combined with
30-40 kt of effective shear. Robust southerly flow and warm
advection should push most areas into the mid-upper 80s (low 80s
eastern shore) for highs. Highest coverage of convection shifts E/SE
into the evening hours Sunday, with continuing chances for
strong/severe storms. Rain should be off the coast by the morning
Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

- Trending more sensible and cooler for the middle and end of
  next week.

A relatively deep trough will remain positioned over the ern
CONUS through the end of the week. Highs Tue still in the 80s
with any appreciable "cold" advection holding off until
Wednesday. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s. With disturbances
pivoting through the trough, can`t rule out isolated showers or
storms at times (especially Tue and Wed). Will have slight chc
PoPs. It will trend cooler by Thursday and Friday with highs
back into the 70s areawide. Overnight Tue night in the low-mid
60s and in the 50s Wed/Thu night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and storms are possible at all terminals
through this evening. Outside of storms, prevailing VFR is
expected. Localized VSBY reductions to MVFR or IFR are possible
in any storms due to heavy rain. Isolated, strong/gusty winds
are also possible. Otherwise, light and variable winds are
expected this aftn into tonight. There is good agreement in most
guidance that fog will develop late tonight given light winds
and high sfc moisture levels. The fog could be locally dense at
times and lead to IFR-LIFR restrictions. Due to uncertainty
regarding timing and low stratus, will not go too low with the
VSBY but will explicitly indicate IFR at all sites (except
RIC). Expect improvement after 12/13z Sat.

Outlook: Widely scattered showers/storms continue through the
weekend. A better chance for storms arrives Monday. Outside of
storms, expecting mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially in the afternoons  and
evening) each afternoon through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions with 5-15kt winds (outside of mainly
aftn/evening tstms) are expected through Sunday as high pressure
gradually pushes offshore this weekend. Seas ~2 ft over the
ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be dominated
by sea breeze circulations each day, allowing winds to become
onshore during those times, with south to southeast winds returning
in the later afternoon and evening/late night hours. There will also
be the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms
each day.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have continued
to keep the forecast below SCA criteria. Winds veer around to the NW
behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Some more widespread
showers and storms will be possible on Memorial Day (Monday) ahead
of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell behind that system that
could bring some 5 foot seas by Monday night. However, seas quickly
subside as winds turn back offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI