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859
FXUS61 KALY 031931
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm air mass will remain in place across the region through
Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible in some spots during the afternoon to
early evening hours. A large upper level low approaching from
the Great Lakes moves into the region by Thursday. This system
looks to bring unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures into
the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level ridge axis will build across the region into
tonight. With the ridge axis to the west of our region through
early evening, there could be a rogue diurnally driven shower or
garden variety T-storm mainly over the higher terrain of the
eastern Catskills, but most areas will remain dry. Humidity
levels remain comfortable, with dewpoints expected to be in the
50s. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the mid to upper
50s.

Tuesday look to be similar to today, with upper level ridging
and a warm air mass remaining in place. Periods of some cumulus
and high level cirrus clouds will be moving through, but should
not temper the warming. Highs again should reach upper 70s/lower
80s(mountains) to mid/upper 80s(valleys). With humidity levels
rising slightly as dewpoints climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s,
there could be an isolated shower/T-storm during the afternoon
to early evening hours. Any coverage should be sparse though due
to lack of synoptic forcing and weak buoyancy (SBCAPE < 1000
J/Kg).

Upper ridge axis shifts slightly westward Tue night, with a
possible weak disturbance spilling over the ridge. With some
lingering weak instability, will mention isolated
showers/T-storms into Tue evening. Lows will be slightly
milder(mid 50s to lower 60s) due to a weak southerly flow
developing.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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On Wed, the upper level ridge starts to break down across the
Northeast as the leading edge of a large upper trough moves SE
into the upper/central Great Lakes. While the forcing from this
system should remain well west of our area, a continued increase
in humidity(dewpoints into the 60s) and the ridge breaking down
could allow for an increase in showers during the
afternoon/evening. Still only looking at isolated to scattered
coverage for now. Guidance showing limited instability with
SBCAPE < 1000 J/Kg, so will only mention slight/low chance for
thunder. With some more clouds around it will be not quite as
warm the previous few days with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

The weather then starts to turn more active late Wed night and
especially on Thu, as the upper level trough tracks into the
eastern Great Lakes, while the system`s warm front/triple point
moves into our area. While details in the exact position/track
of the upper trough (and its closed-upper low core) are not
certain, the pattern should result in high probability for
showers with some embedded thunderstorms depending on magnitude
of instability. Will continue to mention likely/categorical PoPs
on Thu. PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +2 STDEV, so some
embedded downpours could result in locally heavy rainfall. Given
dry antecedent conditions, no widespread hydro problems are
anticipated. High temperatures should be cooler with mainly 70s,
but it will feel humid with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The aforementioned large upper level low will settle in across
the region through the long term period, providing generally
unsettled cool/showery conditions. There is considerable spread
in the guidance with regards to where the core of the closed low
will track though , so there is low confidence in specific
impacts at this time. The track of the closed low will determine
drier vs. wetter periods and also coverage/strength of any
potential thunderstorms. There is at least higher confidence in
temperatures cooling off to slightly below normal levels this
weekend into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Flying conditions remain VFR this afternoon with sct-bkn mid
level clouds around 10 kft in place. Light and variable winds
are expected through the rest of the day at 5 kts or less.

Clouds should start to clear out for this evening, allowing for
continued VFR conditions tonight. Some clouds around 6 kft may
start to spread back into for KPOU late tonight, but it will
remain VFR with no precip. Winds will be very light or calm.

VFR conditions are expected again on Tuesday. Sct cigs around
6-7 kft will develop by the mid to late morning hours for all
sites. Southerly winds will increase to around 5-10 kts for all
sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis