-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
937
FXUS61 KBTV 210231
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There are some isolated showers developing over the region this
afternoon, rainfall will be light. Weather conditions will
become dry once again heading into next week, but with more
seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and
lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1026 PM EDT Friday... The showers that developed this
evening have mostly fallen apart and the region should be
completely dry within the next few hours. While the daytime
cumulus have mostly dissipated by this point, some clouds
associated with the low off the New England Coast are entering
Vermont from the east and some clouds associated with a dying
occluded front are entering northern New York from the west.
This will lead to clouds increasing across the region as the
night goes on. The clouds look to cause less extensive fog
development than last night.


Previous forecast...A little bit of upper level shortwave
energy is pushing into our area from the east, and some isolated
showers have popped up. These showers are very isolated and
only very light rainfall is expected. Conditions will once again
become clear overnight with light flow remaining, will see
valley fog develop again. Minimum temperatures overnight will
dip into the upper 40s to upper 50s. Saturday will continue to
feature dry and quiet weather. This will be00 the first day in a
while that we`re not seeing temperatures creep up into the 80s,
so it may feel on the cool side although it`s still warmer than
seasonal normals. Afternoon maximum temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Cooling trend will continue for
Saturday night with low temperatures dipping into the mid 40s to
mid 50s, and we could once again see some fog in the valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...Dry weather will persist for the
second half of the weekend as the region remains under the
influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, and feel quite fall-
like after this recent warmth, especially with some partially
sunny skies. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the
40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...The region will remain under the
influence of high pressure and upper level ridging through the
beginning of next week, bringing another day or two of dry
weather.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable
precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough over
the Great Lakes region shifts northeastwards towards Quebec.
This pattern shift will bring increased chances of showers,
which will be beneficial given how dry most of the month of
September has been. Model consensus shows the greatest chances
for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes
into northern New York with the low pressure to our west. Beyond
Wednesday, there continue to be chances for scattered showers,
but there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of
the synoptic pattern, so trends will need to be monitored.
Temperatures next week will continue to be rather seasonable,
with daytime highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s and overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Two low pressure systems, one to the west
and one to the east, will product converging cloud cover over
the next 24 hours. This will make fog forecasting a touch
complicated, but patchy valley fog is once again anticipated
throughout the night tonight, primarily between 06Z and 12Z
Saturday. Most likely locations of IFR fog will be SLK, MPV,
and EFK, though all sites have the potential for temperatures to
fall below crossover temperatures tonight with lows in the mid
40s to upper 50s. Thinking cloud cover will keep widespread
thick fog from developing as densely as it did last night, but
surprises are possible. Fog will lift by about 13Z Saturday,
then VFR conditions are anticipated through 00Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm