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286
FXUS62 KCAE 202346
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the region will result in dry and
warm conditions through Sunday. A return to more seasonable
conditions is expected early to mid week along with a slight
chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Key Message(s):

- Patchy fog, locally dense at times, possible late tonight.

Satellite imagery and visual observations show with the loss of
heating the vertical development of the cumulus is rapidly
dissipating with mainly stratus remaining. Over the next couple
of hours expect much of the remaining cloudiness to dissipate
with mostly clear skies into the early morning hours. With the
clear skies and light winds allowing for excellent radiational
cooling temperatures will quickly fall into the low 70s by
midnight with fog and stratus expected to then develop through
sunrise. Expect the fog to be mainly patchy however fog prone
locations could see more widespread fog and lower visibilities.
Expect the lowest visibilities and best chance of more
widespread fog across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee.
With the expected fog and stratus overnight lows will be held
in the mid to upper 60s for most locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- High pressure over the area this weekend with above normal
temperatures.

Trough will move offshore this weekend with potent upper
building over the Carolinas this weekend. Surface high
pressure centered over New England and the Mid-Atlantic will
continue to dominate our weather, with dry conditions expected
despite lingering moisture in PWATS around 1.2"-1.5". The
increasing heights is expected to lead to above normal
temperatures both during the day and night, with highs in the
upper 80s Saturday and perhaps low 90s Sunday. NBM probabilities
of max temps greater than or equal to 90 degrees on Sunday are
over 70 percent across much of the area south and west of the
I-26 corridor. Values in excess of 90 percent are present
through much of the CSRA. Normal high temperatures this time of
year are in the low to mid 80s for Columbia.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Message(s):

- Generally benign weather with above normal temperatures
- Chances of rain increase midweek with limited confidence

Upper ridge remains in place early next week with a few
shortwaves riding up and over. A few may graze the northern
forecast area with a slight chance of showers on Tuesday or
Wednesday, since moisture levels are expected to remain fairly
steady with GEFS mean PWATs between 1.3" and 1.6". Warm, above
normal temperatures are expected to continue through the middle
of the week, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Plenty of uncertainty remains in the forecast from Thursday
onward  as ensembles and deterministic models continue to
disagree on the evolution of a potential tropical system in the
Gulf of Mexico. There is potential we could see a shift in the
overall pattern across our area late next week, but its too
early for much speculation. However, temperatures may take a
minor tick downwards but still remain above normal on Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions
will prevail through the evening as residual showers dry up
after sunset.

The combination of light/calm winds, clear skies, and ample low
level moisture will support the formation of patchy fog late
tonight. There is still some cyclonic curvature aloft, so I
don`t expect widespread dense fog to get to all the terminals,
but I do have some tempo groups with lower vsbys a couple hours
either side of daybreak.

Rapidly improving ceilings/visibilities are then expected by 14Z
with a return to VFR conditions at all terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...