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226
FXUS62 KCAE 172322
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures
are expected through late this week. Unsettled conditions are
possible by late in the week into the weekend as moisture moves
in from the Atlantic. Well above normal temperatures are
expected by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Deep moisture is in place over the area, however ridging aloft
should suppress anything more than isolated showers. Expect any
convection to dissipate through the evening with partly cloudy
skies persisting overnight. Some patchy fog is possible near
daybreak however much is expected to be mitigated by the
remaining clouds. With some drier air entering into the region
we should see lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region will be positioned along the southern periphery of a
strong high pressure ridge centered over New England and the
northern Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, an
onshore flow off the Atlantic will prevail. Despite the onshore
flow, deep layered moisture will be lacking. Looking at the
forecast soundings very little deep moisture to mention any
isolated shra/tsra. Long range ensemble mean precipitable water
values are around 1 inch on Tuesday and 1-1.25 inches on
Wednesday, well below normal for this time of year. Given the
dry atmosphere and subsidence aloft, expect rain-free conditions
during the short term period. Temperatures will be slightly
moderated some by the cooler onshore flow. Therefore, this
period will likely consist of the coolest temperatures of the
week, with seasonable highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong upper level ridging will begin to sink south across the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
The upper level ridging will shift west of the area by later
Friday into the weekend. Operational long-range models and to
some extent long-range ensembles suggest an inverted upper
trough retrograding toward the southeast US coast on Friday
beneath the strong ridge. While the signal has been weakening
with recent model runs, there is the potential for a trough or
area of low pressure to develop offshore and move toward the
southeast US coast Friday into Saturday. The latest NHC 7 day
Tropical Weather Outlook indicates a 30% chance of tropical
formation. Despite any potential tropical development, there
does appear to be at least a notable increase in moisture across
the area supportive of unsettled conditions in terms of diurnal
convection on Friday and to a lesser extent on Saturday.


Ensembles then support strengthening ridging at the surface and
aloft over the western Atlantic later Saturday and Sunday.
However, by early next week a weakness develops over the Great
Lakes and a s/w trough will move just north of the area across
the OH Valley and Northeast. This will lead to well above normal
temperatures over the weekend. In fact, the long range ensemble
forecast shows the probability of temperatures reaching or
exceeding 100 degrees to be 25-35% by Sunday. The NWS HeatRisk
also shows Category 3/Red conditions across much of the area on
Sunday, indicating a potential Major Risk of heat- related
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR forecast.

High pressure centered along the Mid Atlantic coast will extend
southwest across the area. Low pressure is developing in the
Gulf of Mexico. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots will diminish by
03z. The models are suggesting drier air along the Carolina
coast will spread inland overnight. Surface dew points are
expected to fall through Tuesday. This suggests a low fog threat
toward morning. Also, the guidance is consistent with no
stratus overnight with the low-levels drying toward morning.
Some mid and high clouds are spreading northeast from the Gulf
coast region into South Carolina, with most of the mid level
clouds remaining near the AGS/DNL terminals along the Savannah
River. Subsidence under an upper ridge over the area and drier
air suggest any cumulus Tuesday afternoon will be quite limited.
The pressure gradient will be tightening a bit Tuesday so
expect east-southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts
near 20 knots in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture and chances of showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions return Friday and
Saturday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$