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202
FXUS61 KCAR 191859
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
259 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will
build down from Eastern Canada Friday into the weekend as low
pressure remains well off the coast. High pressure will remain
over and northeast of the area into the middle of next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The large low pressure system over the waters will continue to
influence the region to the south while a very weak frontal
boundary will sink across the north this evening and tonight.
For this evening, clouds will increase across the region due to
both systems moving through. In addition, isolated showers are
expected across the north with the upslope flow and frontal
boundary. By tonight, the shower risk will end in the north and
begin in the south. QPF models show the showers beginning after
midnight, though some high-res models show after sunset.
Decided to go with slight chance of isolated showers across
coastal Downeast. SREF models show a quick round of patchy fog
across the region after midnight, especially for any areas that
received rain. This should dissipate by Friday morning as the
low becomes fairly stationary due to the upper level ridge. Kept
isolated showers across coastal Downeast, mainly over Hancock
county due to the NE flow. Temps will be much cooler with the NE
flow and cooler airmass. Expect low 70s across the region.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The area will remain between high pressure to the northeast over
the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and an area of low pressure southeast
of southern New England. High pressure will slowly drift south
over the rest of the area by the end of the weekend. Initially,
showers will remain possible along the southernmost coastal
areas and islands, with clearing expected later in the weekend.
Northern Maine will remain partly to mostly clear and dry. With
a cooler air mass in place, clearing and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s across the north
each night, with patchy river valley fog developing and
dissipating during the early morning hours. High temperatures
will be much cooler than the previous week, but still near to
above normal, ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
much of the period as anomalously high heights persist across
eastern Canada, favoring surface high pressure across the
region. Recent guidance has delayed any chance of precipitation
to at least Wednesday, with most models holding off until
Thursday as an upper level trough is projected to cross the
Northeastern US.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for FVE/CAR/PQI for tonight. VFR this
evening for HUL/BGR/BHB, then MVFR before midnight in low cig.
Possible IFR for BHB in patchy fog. ENE winds 5-10 kts. For
Friday, return to VFR for all north terminals. MVFR conditions
until the afternoon for south terminals, then VFR towards the
evening. ENE winds 5-10 kts.


SHORT TERM: Friday night to Tuesday: Predominantly VFR. Brief
reductions to IFR or lower are possible in patchy river valley
fog, primarily at northern airports such as PQI. A short period
of MVFR is also possible Sunday morning with
cumulus/stratocumulus development. Winds will be strongest
Saturday and Sunday afternoons with NE gusts to around 15 kts
possible at BGR and BHB. Otherwise, light winds are expected
through Tuesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer
waters from midnight tonight through Friday. Visbilities reduced
in patchy fog and isolated to scatter showers.


SHORT TERM: Winds will gradually subside below advisory levels
over the outer waters Friday night into Saturday, but seas of 4
to 6 feet may persist, especially over southern portions of the
waters. Conditions subside below advisory levels across all
waters by Sunday as high pressure builds across the waters.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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High astronomical tides combined with a modest storm surge from
low pressure to the south will lead to minor tidal flooding at
the high tides around 1 PM Friday and 1PM Saturday. The
southernmost east facing islands and peninsulas will be most
subject to erosion, but most areas will see little wave action
due to the wind direction relative to the coastline. Areas
further south along the Maine coast into southern New England
will have a greater coastal flooding threat with more onshore
flow.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ050-051.
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&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...LaFlash/MStrauser
Marine...LaFlash/MStrauser
Tides/Coastal Flooding...MStrauser