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135
FXUS61 KCAR 111940
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
340 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak upper level low pressure will remain across the area
through Wednesday. High pressure will build south of the region
Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Friday followed by
high pressure this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A dense cumulus field remains across the forecast area this
afternoon, with isolated shower development mainly south of a
line from Houlton through Patten. Winds remain light and showers
slow to move, but rainfall should be moderate at best and lack
of shear will prevent showers from building too long before
collapsing. Showers will dissipate overnight with the lack of
diurnal heating, and skies will begin to clear.

For the day on Wednesday, there is a returned threat of showers
and storms as CAPE increases, becoming "tall and skinny" in
forecast profiles. Lingering moisture will help support the
rapid development of scattered thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, however light to calm winds across the forecast area
will limit the amount of shear that would be needed for any
storm to become severe. Lapse rates are also forecast to be less
than favorable, sitting around 6 C/km. Storms will be near
stationary due to lack of winds, so the biggest threat could be
that of localized flooding, provided that the lack of shear does
not first lead to storm collapse.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper level trof will slowly move out of the region
Wednesday night. Any lingering showers are expected to dissipate
after midnight. The mild nighttime temps, calm winds, and moist
soil will help produce patchy fog across the region. By
Thursday, the low pressure system over Quebec should start
approaching the region. Ahead of the system, the warm front
should start to stretch well north of the region, causing winds
to shift from the S. This is expected to bring temps into the
upper 70s across the region.

For Thursday night, the cold front is expected to approach from
the W. QPF models are still having some disagreement with the
placement of the rainfall. Decided to go with the NBM and have
chance rain showers moving into the west after midnight. Chances
for rain showers should gradually increase through late night
through into Friday. Warmer S flow will bring temps into the low
60s for the night. By Friday, the cold front will move into the
state. The question for Friday will be the timing of the cold
front. Some models have the front moving through during the
heating of the day while other have the front moving through
more towards sunset. The timing of the front will determine the
amount of thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon. As of this
update, parameters are building with high CAPE values and some
shear, but the lapse rates are weak except in the North Woods.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The cold front should exit the region on Friday night, with some
possible lingering thunderstorms after sunset. This will depend
on the daytime heating and how much instability the cold have
hold onto. High pressure should move in for the weekend,
clearing skies and bringing seasonal normal temps across the
region. Models become inconsistent by early next week with some
models showing shortwave energy moving through by Tuesday.
Decided to decrease chance of rain to slight chance. Temps are
expected to increase by Tuesday well above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue this evening and through
the night tonight across all terminals. A brief period of IFR
cigs and vis may develop in areas of fog into early Wednesday
morning. Winds will be light to calm overnight. For Wednesday,
VFR conditions will continue with winds light and variable.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon
which could bring brief +RA and reduced vis.

SHORT TERM: Wed night...VFR/MVFR in lingering rain showers.
Patchy fog possible. Light SW winds./

Thur...VFR.  SSW winds 5-10 kts.

Thur night...VFR early, then MVFR/IFR in rain showers. S winds
5-10 kts.

Fri-Fri night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon. WSW winds around 10 kts. NW winds
5-10 kts Fri night.

Sat-Sun...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Light winds and seas less than 3 ft will continue
tonight through Wednesday. Areas of fog may reduce visibility
tonight into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions Wed
night to Thu. Winds and seas should increase Thu night to SCA
levels and remain until Fri night. Winds and seas should
decrease to below SCA levels after midnight on Fri and remain
the rest of the period.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash