-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
751
FXUS61 KCAR 161256
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
856 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through the early
week. A backdoor cold front will drift southwest over Maine on
Thursday. Another area of high pressure works into the area
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
8:56AM Update...Minor tweaks to sky conditions with some high
cirrus working through the area. Otherwise mainly sunny skies
but milky with the upper level smoke from Western Wildfires.

previous discussion
Upper level ridging will persist across the region through tonight.
Surface high remains centered to the south of Nova Scotia. Outside
of some patchy high level clouds expect another sun filled day
today. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to
mid 80s across much of the region, except cooler along the
coast. High pressure will result in continued mainly clear
skies tonight. It will be an unseasonably warm night, with lows
only ranging from the mid 50s to around 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper air pattern by Tuesday morning will feature an upr low over
the Great Basin while another upr low associated with Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight will be located over the southeastern U.S.
Ridge axis from Bermuda High maintains hold on the area/s weather
into the middle of the week. Weakening front dropping twd the St.
John Valley on Tuesday will not be able to overcome strength of the
high and dry air and gradually die out as it heads toward the U.S.

Temps on Tuesday look to rise into the lower-middle 80s over most of
the inland areas. Dry dwpts should be able to mix down and went
lower than NBM guidance for dewpoints in the afternoon, leading to
low relative humidity values of around 35-40% by the afternoon
hours.

PTC8 will slowly move north Tuesday night into Wednesday but will
have a hard time making any headway toward New England. An increase
in cloud cover over Downeast on Wednesday morning may help to keep
temps about one degree cooler for highs with a very minor rise in
dewpoints as well.

CWA looks to be rain-free through Wednesday night. Patchy river
valley fog expected on Tuesday night, but with an increase in cloud
cover not expecting any fog for Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Backdoor cold front looks to work in from the northeast on Thursday
with chc for showers acrs the north during the day and possibly into
the evening hours. Cannot rule out some showers from the system
heading up from the south but confidence is too low to include in
forecast for Downeast. Maritime air will be advecting into the area
on Friday with temps dropping back twd normal under cloudy skies and
northeast winds. H8 temps look to be at their coldest on Saturday
afternoon with high temps only expected into the m/u 60s over inland
areas.

High pressure looks to settle near the area on Saturday night and
with aftn maxes only in the 60s cannot rule out a good radn`l
cooling night for Saturday night. Clear skies and light winds
expected to bring fairly cold temps. For now NBM is giving temps
down around 40F acrs the north but cannot rule out even colder
temps. Will keep an eye on temps for potential for frost and/or
possible freeze on Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. Some lower clouds and patchy fog
could affect KBHB 08z to 13Z this morning and again Tue
Morning, but confidence is low. SW wind 10 to 15 kt today then
less than 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Tuesday Night...VFR with patchy valley fog late Tuesday
night. W 5-20kts gusting to 20kts in the afternoon, becoming
light W Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR. Light W winds.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR showers for
Aroostook terminals.  N around 5kts north, S around 5kts south
becoming NE 5kts Thursday night.

Friday...Mainly VFR. NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas remain below SCA levels through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below
small craft conditions through the middle of the week with SW
winds over the waters with gusts below 15kts. Winds switch to
the ENE Thursday morning before marginal wind gusts Friday
morning form the NE. Seas range from 1 to 3 feet into Thursday
before approaching 5ft Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures possible this week. Although some
of the records look to be well out of reach there are a few
records that could potentially be tied or broken. Here are the
record highs and forecast highs for Monday through Wednesday
September 16th-18th.

9/16:
Caribou: 88F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Bangor: 97F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 93F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2017 (forecast high 83F)

9/17:
Caribou: 88F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 88F, 1991 (forecast high 85F)
Millinocket: 90F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 85F, 2018 (forecast high 84F)

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 82F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 82F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 82F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 82F)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Buster
Marine...TWD/Sinko/Buster
Climate...