-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
994
FXUS61 KCAR 141656
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1256 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today followed by high
pressure Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will shift south of
the area on Monday. The area will remain under the influence of
high pressure through later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:56PM Update...Minor tweaks. Clearing is taking place between
Northern Maine into the Baxter and Moosehead Region. Convection
is rapidly developing across the NW Mountains of Maine from
Somerset to Oxford Counties. These storms are developing in an
area of 500-1000j/kg of SBCAPE and RAP/HRRR models continue to
increase these values to 1000-2000j/kg over next couple hours.
Bulk Shear is increasing 30-45kt ahead of these storms and will
be the dynamic support to cause storms to get strong to
potentially severe with winds, hail and heavy rain the threats.
Greatest risk will be in the Central Highlands to Interior
Downeast with those storm risks. Storms will be quick this
afternoon with storms rushing through the CWA as the Cold Front
is already reaching the Quebec/Maine border.

previous discussion
Surface low will move north through Quebec province today as
cold front moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop this afternoon in advance of the front. Appears the
greatest threat for storms this afternoon will be from about
Houlton down through the Bangor region, and then across the
upper Penobscot Valley through interior downeast. SREF guidance
indicating highest probabilities of 1000J/KG of SB Cape through
this corridor. 0 to 6 km shear in the order of 45 to 50 kt will
help to support storm organization. Gusty winds and hail
continue to main concerns, although precipitable water values
in excess of an inch result in the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall as well. Activity should begin to wind down by late
this afternoon across the north and then by early evening for
the Bangor region as the front continues to sink south across
the region. Cooler an drier air begins to push in behind the
front tonight across northern areas with partial clearing
expected. The front will be slower to cross the coast with a few
showers lingering there into this evening. Highs today will
range from the mid to upper 70s for much of the region away from
the coast. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to lower
50s tonight and the low to mid 50s for the Bangor region and
Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Stalled front looks to be far enuf offshore to keep the bulk of the
showers over the waters with likely pops running from about MDI up
toward Calais at the start of the period. During the morning hours,
these showers will continue to shove south and east before winding
down in the afternoon. Remainder of the CWA will have cooler and
drier air filtering in from Canada with maxes below seasonal norms,
albeit just for one day. Skies will start out partly cloudy across
the north and cloudy over Downeast on Saturday morning but will be
clearing during the day.

Surface high pressure will be building toward the area Saturday
night as low pressure rides up into the Maritimes. H8 temps will
drop down toward 0C and with clear skies cannot rule out the
possibility of patchy frost over deeper sections of the North Woods
as mins dip into the middle 30s.

Flow on Sunday backs around to the southwest in the afternoon as sfc
high slides south of the area and off of Cape Cod. Skies remain
sunny until closer to the evening hours as a weak s/wv rippling thru
the upr ridge brings mid-high clouds into the area from the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday morning H5 high center will be building over the sern U.S.
per all deterministic and ensemble means. CWA will be on the
northern extreme of the ridge axis at the beginning of the long term
period with weak waves periodically moving acrs. This looks to bring
partly to mostly cloudy skies to the area on Monday and cannot rule
out a shower but have not included in fcst at this time. Given the
cloud cover and trending cooler for Monday than prior runs, have
blended current fcst with NBM temps in the mid-70s to knock temps
down by a degree or two with highs topping out right around 80F in
the afternoon.

For Tuesday ridge continues to build acrs the ern half of the CONUS
with models diverging as to how amplified ridging becomes over the
CWA. EC brings 594 heights up into nrn Maine with CMC bringing 592
heights. GFS is a little flatter only bringing 588 heights with
showers acrs the central and the north. While not totally
discounting this soln, will lean more twd EC/CMC with an isold
shower possible acrs the St. John Valley in the afternoon.

Ridging only strengthens on Wednesday with EC up to 597 heights,
CMC and GFS up to 595 heights acrs the north with little being
indicated in the way of s/wvs in the afternoon.

For Thursday ridging begins to flatten as guidance are showing
indications of a front dropping south toward the area. Depending on
how far south this makes it, clouds and eventual showers could keep
north from warming up but not confident enuf to drop maxes into the
u80s and not confident enuf to bump as high as NBM with mid 90s over
interior Downeast. Hv retained prior fcst with just very minor
tweaks at this time.

At this time have kept consistent with heatwave in every sense of
the word beginning Tuesday afternoon with very little relief until
front comes through at some point Thursday night. Apparent
temperatures, or feels like temperature, likely to be in the lower-
middle 90s on Tuesday and increasing into the mid-upper 90s to
around 100 on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. There will be very
little relief from the heat at night with mins in the upper 60s to
around 70 Tuesday night through Thursday night. Prepare now for
an extended period of hot and humid weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected today. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals this
afternoon, especially KHUL and KBGR. Brief MVFR or lower
conditions can be expected in any heavier showers and
thunderstorms. VFR conditions expected tonight, except
MVFR/IFR possible for KBHB in lingering showers.

S to SW wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming NW behind the cold front from
north to south. Approximate time of wind shift at
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL 21z to 23z, KBGR 00z to 02Z, and 06z KBHB.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...Lingering MVFR/IFR at BHB early but improving to VFR
by mid-morning. All other terminals VFR. NW 5-15kts.

Saturday night-Tuesday...VFR. NW 5-10kts through Sunday, then
light S through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into this
evening for the outer waters for 4 to 6 ft seas.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels into
early next week. Fog may reduce visibilities early Saturday
morning but will clear out with cold front moving over the
waters quickly.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Buster
Marine...TWD/Sinko/Buster