-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
552
FXUS63 KDDC 242049
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-No changes to current heat advisory areas for the rest of Today and Tuesday.

- Widely scattered 10-25% areal coverage thunderstorms possible
  through the Highway K-96 corridor of west central Kansas
  between about 9 pm and 3 am.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures have been a little slow to reach the high 90s and
100 degree mark in the eastern counties, however with still a
little time in the day for temps to rise, and the mid 60s dew
points in the area, the heat advised counties seem well
justified. A surface boundary over northwest Kansas can be the
focal area for development of thunderstorms, fighting a very
strong mid level capping 13-14C layer. Any storms able to break
a capping layer can produce strong damaging winds give the steep
mid and low level lapse rates in the late evening hours to past
midnight. Gusty south winds are likely to continue well through
the evening, maintaining hot temperatures in the 90s through
sunset. Widely scattered storms will be relegated to areas north
of highway 400, with a lower chance (10-20%) of lingering
farther south and east in the overnight hours.

 More widespread heat risk is expected on Tuesday and the heat
advisory remains in place from Wakeeney to Liberal and all
points east. Forecast Apparent temperatures are the warmest in
the red hills region (Coldwater  Barber county -Pratt) where
the apparent temps clime to around 105-109 degree on the NBM
model. Additionally, Tuesday offers better dynamics with the
winds aloft increasing as a northwesterly mid level jet segment
spreads into central Kansas in the early through late evening.
This will allow a greater areal coverage of risk of damaging
wind and large hail.

For Wednesday evening and Thursday evening both look conducive
for diurnal MCS activity on the high plains. He ensembles also
show signal for QPF Thursday through Friday, with little
separation in the 6 hour timing bins, but the deterministic
models GEM/GFS/EC still advertise an arc of 60 deg or higher
surface dew points extending from western OK into NW Kansas
Wednesday night with an MCS signal in the QPF fields through 18z
Thursday, so ongoing early thunderstorms could be ongoing
Wednesday morning well into the day. With the jet dynamics still
in place MCS activity look possible again Thursday night with
perhaps not as much CAPE/instability based on the surface dew
points.

In the longer term - the best timing for active weather with
appreciable precipitation returns about Late Saturday Night
through Sunday based on 24 hour QPF Multiple run trends of the
GFS and ECMWF ensembles.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated weak thunderstorms were seen over Kiowa county this
morning, however these convective elements were not growing
upscale and not likely to persist in the short term. Any cloud
cover for the rest of the afternoon will be high, however
thunderstorms may develop across the far western reached of
Kansas, and moves into western Kansas in the mid to late evening
hours. The hot airmass will ensure high cloud bases, and low
visibility is not likely to be a concern - but with the steep
lapse rates and high moisture contents of the atmosphere, the
chances for severe downbursts and even hail cannot be discounted
from about 3z to 7z as widely scattered storms will probably be
ongoing (15-25 % chances).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-046-
065-066-081-090.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-077>081-086>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell