-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
668
FXUS63 KDVN 171737
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued area-wide for today through
  Tuesday for peak afternoon heat indices in the mid 90s to
  around 100 degrees. Make sure to limit time outdoors during
  the afternoon, take frequent breaks in the shade if you have
  to be out, and drink plenty of water!

- A front dropping in from the northwest will bring occasional
  chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday
  night through Thursday.

- Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue for
  the middle to end of the week with highs in the upper 80s to
  mid 90s across central and southern sections of the outlook
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today through Tuesday:

As of 3 AM this morning, a very warm and humid air mass was in
place over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

A shortwave trough will track well to our north today, riding
along a nearly stalled front stretching from northern Nebraska
to central Minnesota into NW Wisconsin. An increasing pressure
gradient south of the boundary will lead to gusty southerly
winds locally, reaching 25-30 mph this afternoon. Plenty of sun
today combined with a deep and well mixed boundary layer, and
850mb temps near +20 C, should support widespread highs in the
low to mid 90s.

Dewpoints today are a little more uncertain due to drying
effects of the diurnal mixing. Current thinking is dewpoints
will hover in the mid to upper 60s, but could occasionally be
near 70 F this morning and again by the evening. It`s also
possible dewpoints briefly mix down to the lower 60s for a few
hours this afternoon. Regardless of the exact scenario that
plays out, it is going to be hot with peak afternoon heat
indices between 95 to around 100 degrees. Since today and
tomorrow are the first really hot days of the season, thought a
Heat Advisory was warranted to better message the potential for
heat related impacts.

Isolated storms (10-20%) may pop up during peak daytime heating
today and Tuesday as SBCIN erodes during the afternoon. Coverage
is anticipated to be very low and most locations will likely
stay dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mid to Late Week:

A more active pattern is expected to develop by the middle of
the week as the surface front draped across the Upper Midwest
early in the week gradually sinks further to the south. The
highest rain chances are across the northwest third or so of
the forecast area. NBM chances for rain Tuesday night into
Wednesday range from near 70% in the northwest to 20-30% in the
southeast. There is uncertainty on how far south the front will
reach later Wednesday into Thursday. For locations that stay
south of the boundary, high temperatures will likely be in the
low to mid 90s. This is currently favored for areas along and
south of I-80 where peak heat indices could again reach the
mid/upper 90s.

A few additional mid-level shortwaves are expected to overtop
the ridge into our area, so additional chances of precipitation
will be in place through the end of the week. Chances for strong
to severe storms remains low, which is evident in the CSU severe
weather probabilities indicating either very low probabilities
or none at all for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are largely expected throughout the TAF period.
Early this afternoon, we are closely watching a line of mainly
showers that have developed over northeastern Iowa. This
appears to have formed along a remnant outflow boundary from
thunderstorms in Minnesota. The high-res models have struggled
greatly to resolve this activity, so not sure how things will
evolve over the next several hours, but given the southeastern
trend in the boundary, CID and DBQ could see some of this
activity over the next few hours, causing MVFR conditions for a
time. We have used PROB30 groups for now to highlight the
possible timing of this activity, but this scenario still
remains uncertain. Otherwise, expect gusty southerly flow and an
expansive daytime cumulus cloud field across the area. A lull
in the winds are expected tonight before strengthening once
again from the south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Record High Temperatures:

June 17:
KBRL: 98/1944
KMLI: 98/1897


Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

June 17:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 78/2018

June 18:
KDBQ: 74/1921
KMLI: 77/2018

June 19:
KDBQ: 76/1931
KMLI: 78/1953

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ001-002-007-009-
     015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ009-010.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech
AVIATION...Schultz
CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech