-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
993
FXUS64 KHGX 191132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The northern outer rainbands of the tropical disturbance in the SW
Gulf are moving into our CWA this morning. This will likely
result in a wet morning for much of region with scattered showers
and thunderstorms lingering into the afternoon. We will need to
monitor the radar closely today in case a rainband or two decides
to bring training heavy showers and thunderstorms. The best chance
chance of this occurring will be over our coastal and
southwestern counties where a Flood Watch and a Slight (Level 2 of
4) excessive rainfall risk remain in place. Most areas across the
northern half of the CWA are expected to receive less than an
inch of rain. In our northern Piney Woods counties, it may even be
difficult to conjure a tenth of an inch of rain. Rainfall amounts
from I-10 to the coast will vary depending on where moderate to
heavy rainbands occur. Though that experience training showers and
thunderstorms could receive several inches of rainfall while
other locations receive an inch or two. HREF guidance suggests
that there could be a localized bullseye of 7-10 inches somewhere
in our southwestern counties near Matagorda Bay. But given that
most of the system`s deep convection is well to our south along
with the rainfall`s underperformance overall, we harbor some
skepticism in these heavier totals. That being said, we are in a
PWAT rich environment and thus we kept our southwest counties in a
Flood Watch as a result. Though the system will push to our west
later today, the chance of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will linger through Thursday.

Winds will remain elevated through today and into Thursday. This
is especially true near the coast where we have had gusts over 40
MPH at times. The long fetch of easterly winds over the Gulf has
pushed the water towards the coast, enhancing tides and resulting
in coastal flooding. Already there have been numerous reports of
saltwater inundation in low-lying coastal and bay areas. These
water levels will improve as we head into low tide this afternoon.
However, Thursday morning`s high tide will likely bring similar
issues. Away from the coast, gusts will generally be 20-25 MPH,
though could be as high as 30 MPH at times as far inland as I-10.
High coastal winds, rough surf, and enhanced tides should
gradually diminish Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Although conditions are expected to gradually improve as we head
into the weekend, there is the potential for the wet weather pattern
to continue through at least early next week, in particular for
areas along and south of I-10. This is mainly due to the potential
of another tropical disturbance developing over/near the Bay of
Campeche on Friday, and if it tracks over the western Gulf of
Mexico, it could help push areas of showers and isolated storms into
the Upper Texas Coast or create a healthy environment for diurnally
driven showers and storms.

At this time, guidance shows the disturbance moving towards the
eastern coasts of Mexico Saturday into Sunday, meanders just east of
the coastline during the late weekend or early week timeframe, and
then slowly pushes into Mexico possibly by Tuesday. This scenario
looks slightly similar to what we are currently experiencing with
the current tropical disturbance over the Gulf but models have it
weaker and with a more elongated/messy wind field. Slight
inconsistencies in the models are seen for this disturbance,
however. Thus, we will have to wait and see how it develops, where
is tracks, and how much of an influence it will have for our local
weather pattern. In addition, the upper level ridge across the
Southern Plains could limit our rain chances which may be the case
for those who are located north of I-10.

For the time being, will continue with a blended forecast (leaning
heaver on the NBM solution), which carries isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. The higher PoPs are
placed over areas along and south of I-10, but again, this could
change depending on the development and track of the disturbance.
With that being said, we will need to keep an eye on soil saturation
and rainfall rates given that several rounds of heavy rainfall each
day could result in minor urban, poor drainage, and street flooding.
Areas along the coast could have the potential for minor coastal
flooding and dangerous beach conditions this weekend into early next
week as well. Please continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

With respect to temperatures, we may see a gradual warming trend
Sunday into early next week and with the increased moisture
transport, heat indices could rise into the 105-110 deg F range in
the afternoons. Make sure to practice heat safety and make the
appropriate adjustments if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing into the
region this morning and into the afternoon. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be closer to the coast. Thus, only LBX and GLS
have mention of TS for now. However, some guidance does show a few
thunderstorms mushing farther inland to perhaps as far north as
IAH. Winds will be strong from the east, averaging 15-20 knots
inland and 25-30 knots near the coast. Higher gusts are expected.
MVFR cigs this morning may improve to VFR by the afternoon for
some areas. MVFR is expected to return tonight. East winds are
expected to decrease to the 10-15 knot range tonight. Coastal
winds may remain above 20 knots through tonight and into tomorrow
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Hazardous winds and seas will continue today into tomorrow.
Offshore winds in the 25 to 40 knot range with higher gusts are
expected. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect over the Gulf
waters and for Matagorda Bay. Seas of up to 10 feet are expected
in the nearshore waters with 10 to 17 foot seas expected farther
offshore. Bay waters will remain very rough today into tomorrow.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Galveston Bay. These
strong winds will continue to push the Gulf waters towards the
coast, enhancing tides and resulting in coastal flooding during
high tide hours today and tomorrow. Also worth mentioning that
locally higher winds and are possible within rainbands that will
impact the coastal waters today. Conditions should begin to slowly
improve on Thursday. However, it could take until sometime Friday
for winds and/or seas to drop below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

The weekend into early next week is expected to feature moderate
onshore flow along with a chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. But this will be dependent on a potential low
pressure system that develops in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
during that time frame. The National Hurricane Center is giving
the system a 30 percent chance of development early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
College Station (CLL)  85  75  92  73 /  60  30  20   0
Houston (IAH)  87  76  91  74 /  70  40  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  88  81 /  90  60  60  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ335>337-436-437.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ214-238-313-338-438-
     439.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ226-235>238-335>338-
     436>438.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self