-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
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FXUS64 KHUN 231747 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 825 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The forecast remains on track so far this morning. No showers or
storms have developed over our local area yet, but still
anticipating this activity (low to medium [15-40%] chances) to not
begin until early this afternoon. Additionally, showers and
storms will largely be concentrated along and north of the
Tennessee River. No severe weather is forecast at this time.
Otherwise, it will be another warm day as highs reach the lower
90s for most locations. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors
and make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the
shade if you work outside or have outdoor plans!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Any lingering showers/tstms should then quickly taper off early
this evening over southern mid TN, as the upper ridge to the south
allows for one more relatively quiet/seasonably mild night. Lows
into early Tue look to again fall mainly into the mid 60s/near 70F
for most spots. The overall wx pattern will then begin to change
starting Tue, as the ridge axis weakens and an upper low/trough
pattern drops into the Midwest/Mid South states. A developing
low-level SW flow will allow PWs to climb into the 1.6-1.7" range
during the day Tue. In addition, 0-6km Bulk Shear values will
climb into the 30-40kt range, as SBCAPE values increase to around
1000-1500 J/kg. All of this should result in low-medium chances of
showers/tstms (30-60%), with the higher prob again north of the TN
River. The increase in deep layer shear may also allow for a few
strong/marginally severe tstms later in the day Tue. Given the
increase in clouds/rainfall, highs on Tue look to climb more into
the upper 80s/near 90F.

Medium to perhaps high chances of showers/tstms (50-70%) will then
continue Tue night thru the middle of the week, as the upper low
drops into the ArkLaMiss region and a weak cold front out of the
NW settles into the area. The increase in cloud cover/rainfall may
limit much in the way of additional airmass destabilization, but
Bulk Shear values around 40-50kt may still allow for a few strong
tstms into the day Wed. The front is expected to stall invof the
area past mid week, with medium/high chances for showers/tstms
continuing thru the day Thu. Total rainfall amounts from Tue thru
Thu could range between 2-3 inches. With the arrival of the weak
front plus the clouds/rainfall, highs Wed/Thu may struggle to
surpass the 80F mark, while lows thru Wed night trend predom in
the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The long term part of the forecast will be heavily dependent on a
potential tropical system out of the western Caribbean that will
lift northward potentially making landfall along the eastern Gulf
Coast in the Thu night/early Fri time frame. Where this system
then tracks will determine how much additional rainfall the mid TN
Valley may experience into the first half of the weekend period.
If this system tracks more to the NNE versus the NE, the area
could see some additional rainfall along with some gusty winds
Fri/Fri night. However, a more eastern track may limit the
rainfall/winds and provide more of a dry forecast this weekend.
Regardless, highs look to remain in the upper 70s/near 80F this
weekend, with lows more in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through at least
tonight. A low chance (15-25%) of showers and perhaps a storm
remains possible this afternoon but will diminish through early
this evening. There is a low chance of patchy fog later tonight,
but confidence is low whether this will impact the terminals.
Therefore, left mention out of the TAFs for now. Rain and storm
chances then increase through Tuesday morning to be 30-50% at MSL
and 20-30% at HSV by late morning/early afternoon. Some breezy
conditions may also accompany this potential into early Tuesday
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26