-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
209
FXUS64 KHUN 110554
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A few showers linger south of the Tennessee River late this
evening, but are gradually weakening with the loss of daytime
heating. Expecting most, if not all, activity to dwindle over the
next hour. Little to no rain is then forecast overnight. The main
concern for the overnight will be at least patchy fog due to
light winds and breaks in cloud cover. It`s possible that some fog
may become dense, especially for areas that saw rainfall earlier
today and this evening (such as Huntsville). This will be
monitored in case a Dense Fog Advisory needs to be issued later
tonight (confidence is not high for issuance at this time).
Lastly, low temperatures will again drop into the upper 60s to
lower 70s late tonight into very early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Upper ridging will build over the Deep South for late week and
into the weekend, with ripples of shortwaves progressing over the
Mississippi Valley and northeast into the Ohio Valley.
Additionally, by Sunday, a shortwave trough is show to swing over
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over
the northeastern Gulf extending up into the Appalachians will
largely maintain its hold through the weekend. However, a cold
front looks to approach the Tennessee Valley from the northwest by
late Sunday into early Monday; although, confidence remains low
if this will hold together. Expecting the surface front to weaken
as it makes its way over the Tennessee Valley, as tends to be the
trend this time of year. Overall, expect daily chances (40-60%) of
showers and storms for the Tennessee Valley.

Instability values generally between 2500-3000 J/kg each day as
well as anemic shear will lead to low chances of organized severe
weather; however, as has been the case over the past couple of
days, some storms may become strong and bring the potential for
gusty winds and frequent lightning. In addition, model guidance
indicates PWAT values between 1.7-2.0 inches Friday through
Sunday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles
when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Thus, showers and
storms will be efficient rainfall producers and may lead to at
least nuisance flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Overall, if
you have outdoor plans, remember storm and flood safety - when
thunder roars, go indoors! Turn around, don`t drown if you
encounter flooded roads!

Another aspect we`ll need to keep an eye on is the heat. Highs on
Friday may be a touch lower, in the mid to upper 80s with some
spots reaching around 90 degrees. Highs are then expected to
increase into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Yes,
the summer is still here! With these temperatures and elevated
moisture, forecast heat indices between 98-102 degrees are
anticipated on Friday, increasing to between 98-105 degrees by
Sunday. Although, if greater coverage of showers and storms
occurs, this may dampen the heat a bit. We`ll continue to monitor
trends through the weekend in case a Heat Advisory may be needed.
Regardless, remember to drink plenty of water and take frequent
breaks in the shade if you go outside!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Bottom line up front: Despite the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day, as heat increases, it will push the TN
Valley near Heat Advisory criteria next week.

High pressure over FL retrogrades early next week and builds
across the Southeast. This won`t bring an abundance of sunshine,
this dirty ridge will still have enough moisture, and pull in
additional moisture to keep shower/storm chances in through mid
week. With no major focused forcing, shower/storm chances will
remain low to medium 20-50% and no severe weather is expected. The
greatest coverage is expected Monday afternoon as a front weakens
as it sinks south towards the TN Valley. Dewpoints will stay in
the low/mid 70s and with temperatures near normal in the lower
90s, heat index values will encroach Heat Advisory criteria of 105
degrees each afternoon. Will be monitoring trends to see if a
Heat Advisory will be needed, however regardless if we have an
advisory or not, heat safety will remain important. Never leave a
person or pet in a vehicle and stay hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Broad high pressure over the Appalachians was bringing a light
SE-S flow across the area, with VFR conditions. Under generally
clear skies with light winds and moisture from previous showers,
have a TEMPO for MVFR fog developing before daybreak Fri. There
was fog west of KMSL and over southern middle TN at TAF issuance.
Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with
VFR weather expected. Daytime heating and resultant instability
will bring more scattered showers/thunderstorms from the late
morning into the early evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB