Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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043 FXUS66 KMFR 111316 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 616 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (12Z)...
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North Bend will be the difficult TAF forecast for this cycle as low clouds may move over the terminal, but confidence in this is low. If this occurs, it would be through the morning and early afternoon hours. Otherwise, lots of sunshine expected inland with winds breezy at times. Light and variable winds return later this evening. -Guerrero
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 251 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ DISCUSSION...Weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday will be largely the same day after day. High pressure will be present, with a building thermal trough along the coast. Stratus has settled in along the Pacific coast this morning, limiting visibility in some places. The stratus is already beginning to erode north of Cape Blanco, as strong north winds develop in response to the building thermal trough. South of Cape Blanco, around Brookings, fog has gotten stuck in and is likely to last near sunrise. Stratus and areas of fog are expected along the coast each of the next nights at least for short durations before the winds mix them away. Further inland, warm temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal are expected, with afternoon breezes present. Thursday evening through Friday, a trough will move move towards the PNW. Temperatures will rewind back to spring-like conditions more reminiscent of early May by Friday afternoon. The coolest day looks to be Sunday, father`s day. No rain is expected with the first front that moves through the region Thursday night. Winds will be stronger, though. Winds will become gusty in the afternoons from Friday through Monday. The strongest winds are currently forecast for Sunday, but there exists enough spread in the model data that this part of the forecast is still subject to change. This quasi-stagnant trough will also help keep humidities higher overnight and prevent humidities from nearing critical thresholds in the afternoons. Overall, this passing trough should not a have a high impact on fire weather related conditions, considering the time of year it`s moving through. The trough will remain over the region Friday through the weekend, moving weak fronts through that will have almost no chance for rain in S. OR and NorCal. The fronts will erode the dry air in the region, however, and the troughs slow motion will allow moisture to build. This will eventually lead to a moist front moving through the region at the start of next week, most likely after Monday (06/17) night. Where, and how much rain comes with this system are still unknown. -Miles AVIATION...11/06Z TAFs...VFR ceilings will persist away from the coast through the TAF period. IFR ceilings are anticipated to build into the coast again tonight near North Bend as high pressure and strong inversion remain present. Some MVFR ceilings should move into the coast around Tuesday morning and afternoon as plenty of moisture remains present in the boundary layer. A cold front with some modest vertical lift ahead of a dry cold front will aid in the coastal cloud cover. We`ll see those ceilings clear out later Tuesday evening. -Smith MARINE...Updated 230 AM Tuesday, June 11, 2024...North winds increase again this afternoon through Thursday morning as another moderate west swell arrives. We will have a transition period from one hazard today to multiple hazards tonight/Wednesday. Across the southern waters on Wednesday, we will have a Hazardous Seas Warning and a Gale Warning, but the northern waters will have a Hazardous Seas Warning and a Small Craft Advisory. Across the southern waters, the probability for wind gusts of 41 knots or greater is around 80- 95% where we have a Gale Warning. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should lower some through the end of the week. -Guerrero
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&& .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.
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