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259
FXUS66 KMFR 182115
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
215 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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The main forecast message is a warm up this week but
not extreme heat for this time of year. No thunderstorms are expected
but cumulus cloud development will occur over the mountains in
the afternoons through Thursday. The most challenging part of the
short term forecast through Friday morning is how much cloud cover
will occur at the coast along with any drizzle. The low level
flow is more offshore (northeasterly) south of Cape Blanco during
the overnight periods but remains more northerly north of Cape
Blanco. There could be periods of clouds and maybe drizzle at
times at the coast north of Cape Blanco through Friday morning.
There should be fewer clouds or clear south of Cape Blanco except
near Brookings due to a southerly surge of stratus that
frequently reaches that area in a reversal of the flow there.
Typical sea breezes will also cause gusty northerly winds at the
coast during the afternoons and early evenings.

.LONG TERM...High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the warmest temperatures
of around 100 degrees in the lower Klamath River Valley. The
warmer valleys reach the moderate category of HeatRisk on those
days but the relatively short duration and cool early morning
temperatures should prevent any heat advisories from being issued.
However, the recent cooler weather will mean some acclimation to
this heat will be needed.

A weak and dry front will move across the area Saturday night and
early Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday but still above
normal. Temperatures will likely remain above normal early next
week but uncertainty in the models increases early next week so
there is less confidence in the temperature forecast.
Sandler
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.AVIATION...
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18/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with nary a cloud in sight is
expected during daylight hours. Northerly winds over the ocean will
allow some marine clouds currently well offshore to approach the
shoreline well after midnight and have added MVFR ceilings for KOTH
after 11Z. VFR is expected all other locations through the TAF
forecast period.
-Sargeant
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.MARINE...
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Updated 230 PM Tuesday, June 18, 2024...High pressure
offshore and a thermal trough along/near the coast will likely
remain in place through at least the weekend. This will result in
persistent northerly winds and wind-driven seas through this period.
Conditions will be worst south of Cape Blanco where winds and steep
seas hazardous to small craft will persist.

The thermal trough will strengthen further Wednesday afternoon into
Friday evening, and this may bring very steep seas and/or northerly
gales to the waters south of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon into
Friday evening. The latest model solutions keep winds just under
gales at this time. With this uncertainty, it is recommended
mariners stay tuned to updates as we move through the week.
-Guerrero/Sargeant
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&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.
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$$