-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
031
FXUS63 KMKX 291434 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
934 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm to develop across
  parts of the area this afternoon along the cold front.

- River flooding and high water levels remain elevated into next
  week. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier
  rainfall.

- Breezy northwest to north winds will become hazardous to
  Small Craft tonight into Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued 934 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Low clouds are lingering across the area, and may take several
hours to scatter out, which is still anticipated by early this
afternoon. The initial surface trough has moved through the
area, as winds have shifted to the west with some gustiness.

The main cold front is still pushing southeast through
Wisconsin, and may help generate a few showers and/or storms
this afternoon. There should be 1000 to 1500 J/kg of mean layer
CAPE with around 40 knots of deep layer bulk shear, capped
somewhat by the warm low levels. Could see gusty winds and small
hail with a stronger storm, if they can form.

The main 500 mb shortwave trough is expected to remain well
north of the area this afternoon, so its influence may be
confined there as well. CAMs suggest that any activity would be
isolated to widely scattered, and may be limited to north of the
forecast area. Will continue to mention smaller PoPs for this
potential this afternoon, highest toward the northern and
northeastern parts of the area.

Otherwise, a warm and humid day is expected until the main cold
front passes through, with highs into the lower to middle 80s.

Wood
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today and Tonight:

With the rest of the MCV to the east and larger scale subsidence
settling in across southern Wisconsin, dry conditions have
returned. Two cold fronts are still to our west early this
morning in eastern MN and western central WI. Both cold fronts
will shift eastward and move through the state today. The first
front will move through southern Wisconsin this morning bringing
some clearing skies and lower dewpoints. Behind the front the
clear skies will increase instability a bit with CAPE values
expected to climb to around 1000-1500 J/kg. While dewpoints will
drop slightly they should remain around 60 degrees. In an
environment with roughly 30 knots of shear, any mesoscale
lifting has the potential to develop some scattered rain
showers and storms.

As the secondary cold front moves through this will bring the
best potential for a few rain showers to develop this afternoon.
The chances are low due to the uncertainty that we will get the
instability, shear, lift and enough moisture all lining up at
the right time when the front comes through. Guidance has
reflected this low chance by having previous runs not even
acknowledge these chances. The latest CAMs this morning have
finally started to recognize this low threat for rain and
storms early this morning which does increase confidence
slightly. POPs this afternoon remain around 20-25%. If any
storms due develop across portions of south central and east
central Wisconsin then there will be a potential for some gusty
winds and small hail. Sounding have a very dry low level
profile which will help with the downburst potential.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Sunday through Friday:

High pressure will begin to build into the Great Lakes Region
from the Northern Plains Sunday into Monday. This will bring dry
weather and cooler conditions back to southern Wisconsin. The
coolest day will be Sunday where high temperatures struggle to
climb into the low 70s. As the high pressure system begins to
move overhead Monday, southerly winds return bringing some weak
WAA back to the state. This will cause temperatures to increase
slightly with highs in the low to mid 70s. This brief period of
quiet weather will come to an end Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday a more active pattern once again sets up
across the state. A few upper level troughs and pulses of PVA
are expected to move through the Great Lakes Region during this
time. This pattern will promote multiple frontal passages and
the sustained southerly winds will allow persistent WAA. Given
all of this, southern Wisconsin again looks to be in a situation
with warm and moist conditions. This could lead to near daily
chances for rainfall. Due to this guidance has painted in broad
brushed POPs Tuesday through Friday. Don`t expect any day to be
a complete wash out at this time, so worth keep an eye on this
time period to see where the best chance for rain line up.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 934 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Low ceilings are expected to gradually mix upward and scatter
out by early this afternoon across the area. Westerly winds with
gusts to around 15 knots are expected as well, veering
northwesterly later this afternoon and early this evening, as
the main cold front moves through.

May see a shower or thunderstorm develop with the frontal
passage this afternoon, though uncertain if this will occur.
Sheboygan would have the better chances of seeing any activity,
but will not mention in TAFs at this time.

Gusty northwest winds are expected tonight, becoming north
Sunday and weakening. Winds should shift northeast for terminals
near Lake Michigan by Sunday afternoon, with some gusts to 15
knots or so. May see some diurnal cumulus clouds develop Sunday
afternoon.

Wood
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&&

.MARINE...
Issued 431 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

South to southeast winds will continue early this morning as low
pressure of 29.5 inches moves eastward across the northern Great
Lakes Region. A pair of cold fronts will slide southeast today
causing winds to shift to southwesterly by midday, and then
northwest by the evening. Gusty northwest winds are then expected
tonight through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
during this time for the gusty northwest winds. Northwest winds
will weaken Sunday night into Monday and become northeast to
easterly as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds in from the
Northern Plains.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM
     Saturday to 9 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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