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386
FXUS64 KMOB 262133
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
433 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Shortwave impulses translating over the area this afternoon ahead of
a deepening upper trough over the Ozarks/Tennessee Valley regions
are combining with ample deep layer moisture (precipitable water
values between 1.8-2.2 inches) are aiding in the development of
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. CAPE values up to 3000-4000 J/KG along with some drier
air aloft aiding in downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/KG may
occasionally allow the stronger cells that develop to produce
damaging wind gusts and possibly hail to the size of quarters in
addition to frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.

An upper level trough will continue to amplify as it translates
southeastward across the north central Gulf Coast region tonight
with the main trough axis looking to remain oriented across our
forecast area through the day Thursday. Plentiful deep layer
moisture will remain entrenched across our area tonight into
Thursday, with precipitable water values increasing further to 2.0-
2.25 inches. A surface boundary will gradually advance into our
southeast MS and interior southwest/south central AL counties on
Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
linger into the evening, with another potential uptick in convective
coverage late tonight into Thursday morning, especially near the
coast and into southeast MS/southwest AL along the trough axis. Will
have higher POPs late tonight into the day Thursday, generally up to
60-70 percent. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms will
once again be possible. /21
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&&

.SHORT/LONG TERM...
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(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west
beginning Friday and continuing into the early part of next week.
The upper high pressure will drift east by Wednesday of next
week, being centered MS/AL by Wednesday. With the center of the
upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex region through
the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern will persists
over our region with some weak shortwave energy likely rounding
the eastern periphery of the upper high. This upper energy,
combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal boundary over the
interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime heating and
instability, will allow for scattered to locally numerous showers
and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
During the early to middle part of next week, surface high
pressure will be ridging in from the east, maintaining the moist
low level airmass across the region. This will help maintain a
chance for scattered showers and storms each day into the early to
middle part of next week, but with the upper ridge building
coverages will be a little less than in the first part of the
period. Daytime highs Friday through Sunday will primarily be in
the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the 100-1005
degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and Wednesday,
daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most locations,
with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many areas. With
this, we will potentially be looking at another round of Heat
Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and then
into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to be
mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most
locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. DS/12
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Southwesterly to westerly flow will increase tonight with
exercise caution headlined offshore. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and storms will develop each day. A few storms could be
strong with localized strong gusts or waterspouts. /21
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      75  89  73  92  75  92  76  94 /  50  70  50  60  30  50  20  60
Pensacola   78  89  77  90  79  91  78  93 /  50  70  60  60  40  50  30  60
Destin      79  88  79  90  80  91  80  92 /  40  70  70  60  40  50  30  60
Evergreen   72  89  72  93  73  93  73  94 /  40  60  30  60  20  50  20  50
Waynesboro  72  90  71  93  74  94  73  95 /  50  60  20  50  10  40  10  50
Camden      73  89  71  92  73  92  73  93 /  40  60  20  50  20  40  20  50
Crestview   74  91  73  93  74  94  74  96 /  30  70  50  60  20  50  20  60
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>056-059-060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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