-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
399
FXUS62 KRAH 211850
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the
Southeast ahead of a cold front that will approach from the west and
become quasi-stationary from the Middle Atlantic to the lower MS
Valley Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Weak high pressure has been nearly stationary off the Delmarva
Peninsula for the last 24 hours and will remain there through the
overnight hours. Some diurnal cumulus clouds have developed this
afternoon, although coverage is less than it was yesterday. Less
cloud cover will help afternoon temperatures to be about 3-5 degrees
higher than yesterday, reaching the low to mid 80s. Skies should
remain mostly clear tonight, except there should be cloud cover over
the eastern part of the state. The low clouds and moisture have been
shunted a little farther each of the last few nights, so tonight the
forecast is for cloud cover to not extend much farther west than I-
95. While there was some localized dense fog across eastern counties
this morning, that is not expected tonight. Lows will range from the
mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to influence much of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeastern US Wednesday. Some patchy fog/low stratus
in the early morning hours over the Coastal plain region will clear
out by early morning and result in a mostly sunny day. Dry
conditions will continue through the day with light south-southwest
winds. Temperatures will be 6 to 7 degrees above normal with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

The general theme for the Thursday through Tuesday timeframe is for
increasingly unsettled weather as a cold front moves inA series of
upper level disturbances in west-southwesterly flow aloft will
augment the chances for showers and storms at times. The most
predictable times for precip appear to be on Thursday with the
initial cold front and then on Friday with an upper disturbance with
which the GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent. Beyond that the upper
level features appear to be relatively subtle until perhaps early
next week when models project a surface low moving through the Ohio
Valley and another cold moving into the region.

Rainfall through next Tuesday is forecast to total half an inch to
an inch on average, but there will certainly be some areas that
receive more in heavie showers, and thunderstorms. Slightly greater
rainfall is forecast across northern North Carolina into Virginia.

Temperatures should be slightly above normal Thursday and Friday in
the mind and upper 80s, likely trending back to normal over the
weekend with increased coverage of clouds and convection, although
confidence is somewhat low given 10 degree temperature spreads in
the some ensemble guidance owing to the uncertainty in the timing of
precip.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions for all terminals
except RWI. At these four sites, some diurnal cumulus clouds are
expected with light east-northeast wind today, eventually veering to
the southwest Wednesday morning. For RWI, have gone with a
persistence forecast as each of the last several mornings have seen
conditions drop to IFR/LIFR across much of eastern North Carolina,
and imagine this could be the case again tomorrow morning. However,
each day the western extent of the low conditions have moved farther
east, and it is possible that all restrictions may remain east of
RWI.

Outlook: There will be a chance of showers/storms at INT/GSO
Thursday afternoon, then diurnally driven showers/storms will be
possible at all terminals Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Green