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575
FXUS65 KVEF 212223
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
323 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The warming trend of the past few days will continue
into the weekend. Temperatures will be around 5 to 8 degrees above
normal on Saturday and Sunday, with additional warming expected next
week. An influx of moisture over the next few days will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms to Southern Clark and Eastern
San Bernardino counties on Sunday afternoon and evening. Mohave
County will see daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue each day through the middle of next week,
especially for the eastern portions of the county. Outside of these
areas, hot and dry conditions will persist through next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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through Monday.

The warming trend of the past few days will continue as we head into
the weekend. This warming trend will plateau over the weekend with
temperatures around 5 to 8 degrees hotter than normal, yielding
widespread Moderate HeatRisk values with a few isolated pockets of
Major HeatRisk in Death Valley.

Leftover moisture from what used to be Tropical Storm/Depression
Alberto can be seen slowly pushing into Mohave County via dewpoint
surface observations. This moisture will continue to creep into the
southern and eastern portions of our forecast area over the next few
days, spilling into southern Clark and eastern San Bernardino
counties by Sunday afternoon. This anomalous moisture combined with
hotter than normal temperatures will bring a 20 to 30% chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms to eastern Mohave County on
Saturday afternoon, with more widespread 20% to 30% chances for
precipitation for areas south and east of Interstate 15 on Sunday
afternoon. By Monday, precipitation chances will once again be
limited to the eastern portions of Mohave County as the moisture
retreats slightly.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday.

Overall, this period is looking very hot as high pressure
dominates. Residual moisture in Mohave County will keep a slight
chance of showers/storms near the eastern county border each
afternoon through Thursday. The primary forecast concern shifts
back to heat with the potential for excessively hot conditions
becoming more widespread across our area Tuesday and Wednesday.
The current forecast has high temperatures generally 9-10 degrees
above normal both days which means they are forecast to be within
a few degrees of daily high temperature records. Currently,
Wednesday is day to watch in Las Vegas will probabilities giving a
36% chance of tying the daily record of 114 degrees. Overnight
warm low temperature records could be in play as well. Coverage of
major Heat Risk notably expands on Tuesday with spatterings of
extreme heat risk thrown in. It becomes even more pronounced on
Wednesday when temperatures are forecast to peak. The overall
coverage of major heat risk is forecast to shrink on Thursday but
still remains fairly widespread.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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For Harry Reid...Light east winds give way to south-
southwest breezes this afternoon. Still some uncertainty on the
timing of wind shift, but most guidance suggests between 21z-23z.
Gusts of 15-20 knots possible with the southerly winds. Speeds
decrease around sunset and remain light overnight. May see southeast
breezes start a bit earlier tomorrow morning as moisture tries to
surge up the Colorado River Valley. Mostly clear skies with just a
few mid-level clouds during the afternoons

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Another day of southerly breezes at most TAF sites,
with KDAG being the exception due to westerly winds. Peak gusts
expected to be 15-20 knots, primarily in the Las Vegas and Colorado
River Valleys. Winds decrease this evening, except at KDAG when
their typical westerly push arrives. Mostly clear skies with just a
few mid-level cumulus over the high terrain. Breezy south-southeast
winds may kick in a bit earlier tomorrow morning as moisture tries
to surge up the Colorado River Valley. This could impact sites along
and south of I-15.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Woods

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