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182
FXUS61 KALY 212339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and seasonably warm conditions through tomorrow,
then temperatures trend cooler through Monday and Tuesday. Our
long stretch of dry weather then comes to an end by the middle
to end of this week as unsettled conditions develop and chances
for showers increase Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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.Update...As of 7:40 PM EDT...Surface low continues to sit and
spin southeast of Cape Cod beneath an upper low. This
disturbance is responsible for some high clouds across western
New England, while a separate upper shortwave sliding to our
southwest has resulted in numerous showers and thunderstorms
across central and western NY. A few of these showers and a
couple rumbles of thunder have made it to northern Herkimer
County, so added in PoPs here through the next couple hours.
While our region should remain mostly dry tonight, the potential
for cloud associated with the upstream convection makes for a
tricky temperature forecast tonight. Temperatures are actually
running a few to several degrees below the previous forecast for
areas that are clear and calm, so we knocked temperatures down
through the next few hours. However, little change made to
overnight lows due to uncertainty in how widespread clouds will
be. Will also add a mention of patchy fog in the typical river
valleys and near wetlands, but otherwise previous forecast
remains on track with more details in the previous discussion
below...

.Previous...Mostly clear tonight and the only areas with some
question about whether cloud cover will develop is in western
New England within the very western periphery of the clouds
associated with the coastal storm, and some convective debris
from storms in western NY/PA. Cooling and drying from the low
level ridging in northeastern New England and SE Canada could
provide some low level drying and cooling, especially in areas
with the most persistent clear sky through the night. Lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level cooling and drying continues from the east, pushing
west and south, while upper energy and moisture affecting
western NY/PA weakens, dries up and lifts north into Canada.
Some question about how much cloud cover from convective debris
tracks into our region, but the most cloud cover should be in
western areas. Some cloud cover could form where the moisture in
western NY/PA converges with the drier air in eastern NY but
where that boundary sets up is in question.

There should be enough sun to help temperatures reach the upper
60s to lower 70s with a few mid 70s in the Hudson Valley and
western Mohawk Valley and a few mid 60s higher terrain.

A slow and gradual increase in cloud cover as another upper
impulse and surge of moisture and low level forcing slowly
builds east. The low level cooler and drier air remains somewhat
anchored over our region but rain should hold off until later
Monday night and Tuesday and mainly just scattered showers
from the Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley through the
southwestern Adirondacks.

Highs Monday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Tuesday in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex upper pattern evolution Wednesday through Saturday.
Upper energy weakens and lifts north Wednesday, then phases with
northern stream energy dropping south, to develop a closed low
that drops through the northeast U.S. Thursday and Friday. So,
showers likely with some isolated thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

With the closed upper low slow to drop south and offshore New
England, scattered showers each day through Thursday with more
isolated showers Friday. Potentially dry by Saturday. Still,
unsettled weather most of the week, and potential for heavy
rain seems low as deeper more tropical moisture will be lacking
but any measurable rain, even light, will help alleviate the
dry conditions we have had lately.

Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 60s with some 50s in higher
terrain. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to around 70 with around
60 higher elevations. Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00z Monday...All terminals currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should persist through at least the next few
hours. However, confidence is lower than normal regarding
potential for fog/mist formation tonight due to uncertainty in
if/how much mid-level cloud cover will spread into the region
overnight tonight. Best chances for fog seem to be at GFL and
POU, but if clouds are more widespread then this could limit the
fog at these sites. At PSF, MVFR stratus may develop again
tonight, but we delayed the timing slightly from the previous
TAF cycle. If low stratus is slower to move in, patchy fog can`t
be ruled out here either.

Any fog and/or low stratus should lift fairly quickly tomorrow
morning after sunrise. Then, VFR conditions should prevail
through the day with just SCT mid and high clouds around.

Winds will be from the east/southeast at less than 5 kt this
evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Tomorrow
morning, winds increase to 5-8 kt from the east, which should
continue through tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Main