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952
FXUS61 KALY 210843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
443 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid once again today with dangerous heat
mainly for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. After
morning sun, scattered areas of rain and thunderstorms develop again
this afternoon with some stronger storms capable of producing
damaging winds and heavy downpours possible before storms diminish
this evening. Summer warmth, humidity, and afternoon showers and
storms continue this weekend with increasing confidence for strong
to severe weather on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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Early dense fog this morning in the Upper Hudson, Housatonic and
Connecticut River Valleys will burn off shortly after sunrise
thanks to the strong June sun angle. Then, much of eastern NY
and western New England should enjoy a fairly sunny morning
which will allow temperatures to quickly rise into the low to
even mid-80s. With dew points still elevated in the upper 60s to
low 70s, it will feel quite warm and muggy.

Clouds increase in coverage midday into the afternoon thanks to
the sfc trough from yesterday lingering near or just south of
I-90 and a secondary cold front/wind shift boundary sliding
southward from the North Country into the southern Adirondacks
and Upper Hudson Valley. These two boundaries will help focus
diurnally driven convection during the peak heating hours once
again but with both boundaries rather weak and mid-level lapse
weaker compared to yesterday, there is less confidence that
updrafts will grow tall enough for storms to become severe.
Shear is still rather marginal still only around 20-30kts
(slightly stronger north of I-90) despite the Northeast
remaining within the conveyor belt of relatively faster zonal
flow along the northern periphery of our broad ridge. The high
dew points and temperatures warming into upper 80s to low 90s
will easily support more than sufficient instability ranging
1-2k J/kg so some strong storms are still possible with cool
pools and outflow boundaries helping to initiate additional
pulse type convection. CAMs also support this thinking for
overall convective evolution. Thus, the Storm Prediction
continues to carry a marginal risk for severe weather across
much of the eastern NY and western New England with damaging
winds the primary hazard. High freezing heights and high PWATs
will also support efficient warm rain processes and heavy
downpours. Weak steering flow aloft and convection developing
along linear boundaries may allow storms to train or repeatedly
impact an area which may result in some localized poor drainage
flooding as well.

While it will still be quite warm and humid today with much of
the region warming well into the mid to upper 80s with low 90s
in the mid-Hudson Valley, heat index values only look to meet
heat advisory criteria in the mid-Hudson Valley, the southern
Taconics and Litchfield County, CT which will remain in the
slightly hotter air mass just south of sfc trough. Thus, we
maintained the heat advisory here and extended it to cover all
of Litchfield County.

Diurnal convection diminishes this evening with cloud coverage
likely lingering as our boundaries continue to be overhead.
Clouds should limit overall fog formation except in more fog
prone valley areas, especially where it rains during the
daytime. Temperatures remain quite warm/muggy with lows only
drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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** Heat Advisory in effect for the mid Hudson Valley and all of
 Litchfield County, CT through 8 PM today. The Heat Advisory for
 the mid-Hudson Valley was extended through 8PM Sunday.**

Coming soon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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An upper trough will be approaching from the west to begin the long
term at 12z Monday, with the cold front responsible for Sunday`s
potential strong to severe weather nearby or just to the east of our
region. There remains some uncertainty with just how quickly the
cold front departs to our east. The 00z Euro not withstanding,
general trend has been for a slightly quicker frontal passage which
would result in the deeper moisture and instability shifting off to
our east Monday, thus limiting the threat for any stronger storms.
However, with the upper trough and cold pool moving overhead during
the day, we will still have scattered pop-up showers and a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon with diurnal heating. It will be
slightly cooler and less humid behind the front with highs in the
70s for the terrain to 80s for the valleys.

Monday night and Tuesday, surface high pressure builds in from the
southwest. Diurnally driven showers/storms die off after sunset, and
with ridging aloft building overhead Tuesday looks mainly dry as
well. Tuesday will be warmer with the core of the cold air aloft off
to our east. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s for many
valley locations, although the humidity will remain at bay with dew
points "only" in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday through Friday...The surface high slides off to our
southeast and a warm front lifts northwards through the region
Tuesday night or Wednesday. Therefore, Wednesday looks quite warm
with highs climbing back into the low 90s for some of the lower
elevation areas south of I-90. Upper troughing and a surface cold
front will approach from the west/northwest sometime in the
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon timeframe. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected with the cold frontal passage. The
timing of the front is highly uncertain this far out in time, but if
the timing of the cold front aligns with peak daytime heating then
some stronger storms would be possible. We will likely get another
shot of cooler air behind the front Thursday afternoon into Friday,
although the cool down may be short-lived with the CPC predicting
temperatures to average above normal for days 8-14.The next
system will impact the region around Wednesday with another
round of showers and thunderstorms. In addition, temps will be
fairly warm once again with humid conditions. More significant
cooling and drying is expected towards Thursday behind this
system.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06z Saturday...Fog has already formed at GFL and PSF,
with both sites seeing LIFR conditions within the past hour.
Expecting patchy fog with periods of IFR or lower vsbys and cigs
at GFL through shortly after sunrise. At PSF, fog will be more
persistent with through sunrise with LIFR to VLIFR vsbys and
cigs. Not expecting fog at POU. At ALB, there is a small chance
for some fog/mist to form for a couple hours around sunrise.
Confidence in fog formation at ALB is low, so will just hint at
it with an MVFR tempo group, but will note that if fog forms
then up to a couple hours of IFR cigs/vsbys are possible.

Fog lifts by 10-12z this morning, with a return to VFR conditions at
all TAF sites with just SCT mid and high clouds around through the
morning. We will once again have scattered showers and storms
develop during the afternoon. Have included VCSH groups at all
terminals and prob 30 groups for POU/PSF where chances for a storm
look highest this afternoon and evening. Prevailing VFR conditions
expected this afternoon, although any showers or storms moving over
the terminals could lead to brief IFR vsby reductions. Showers and
storms diminish after sunset with a return to VFR conditions,
although areas that receive rain this afternoon and evening may have
fog to contend with again tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through mid-morning, increasing to
around 5 kt from the north/northeast at ALB/GFL and the northwest at
PSF and remaining variable at POU. Gusty winds are possible with any
thunderstorms. Winds become light and variable again after sunset
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main