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323
FXUS61 KBGM 281818
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry conditions continue today with seasonal
temperatures. The next system arrives in time for the weekend
with periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Saturday night. Showers linger into Sunday, then as the system
makes an exit, drier air filters back in at the start of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1245 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to sky cover this afternoon and early
evening as some clouds begin to stream in over western parts of
the area. Also made some minor PoP adjustments around 12Z and
then again around 18Z tomorrow as they appeared a bit high
looking at the latest guidance around the southern Finger Lakes
area. This will continue to be examined with the next update.
Winds were increased a bit tomorrow morning into the afternoon
as well.

930 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track at this time with just a few
minor tweaks made based off the latest obs/guidance.

630 AM Update...

Cirrus clouds have burned off with the sunrise this morning.
Minor changes were made to update temperatures and dewpoints
using observations. No other changes needed at this time.

400 AM Update...

A cool start this morning, otherwise a pleasant day is in store
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s with a few
spots reaching the low 80s by afternoon. Sunny skies will
dominate most of the day as high pressure remains in control.
Clouds begin to filter back in Friday evening ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s with
pockets of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region. A first
round of showers will gradually move into the region after
midnight becoming more steady by late Saturday morning/Saturday
afternoon as the second round moves in.

Trends for tomorrow continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. A deep warm cloud layer also remains
consistent with a depth of 12-13 K ft. WPC has the entire
region in a marginal risk for flash flooding. SPC has the very
western portion of our CWA in a slight risk and the remaining
area in a marginal risk for severe. In terms of severe there is
a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but
forecast soundings continue to show modest instability for
tomorrow afternoon, but plenty of shear. Instability begins to
work its way into the western portion of our CWA late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening with increasing CAPE and steep lapse
rates, so this timeframe will have to be monitored. In
conclusion the severe threat will depend on when and whether
instability will make its way east into our region. The most
likely potential hazard for our region will be localized flash
flooding especially for areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Deep southerly flow in place temperatures on Saturday warm into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM Update

Main concerns in this period are the potential for areas of
excessive, heavy rainfall and scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms over the weekend. The highest probabilities look to be
Saturday evening, but if the front slows down issues may lingering
into Sunday as well over eastern portions of the CWA. For Day 2 (8
AM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday) WPC has the entire area under a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall and isolated flash flooding, with a
Slight Risk across Oneida County where the upslope S-SW flow into
the Tug Hill may enhance rain totals. For the same Day 2 period, SPC
has expanded the Slight Risk along and west of I-81, with a Marginal
Risk further east across the rest of the CWA. Main severe threats
will be wind and isolated tornados.

PWATs are an impressive 2.0 to 2.3" Saturday evening, with a gradual
increase in MLCAPE possible as surface dew points surge into the
upper 60s to low 70s over the region. 00z GFS BUFKIT data suggests
very favorable conditions for warm, extremely efficient rainfall
processes. This includes PWATs of 2.5 to 3 standard deviations above
normal for late June, impressive warm cloud layer depths of 13.5k
feet and a southwesterly low level jet around 35-40 kts below 850mb.
There is skinny CAPE modeled of at least several hundred J/Kg which
will aid in convective development, potentially increasing rainfall
rates. Current guidance has an area of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall and embedded t`storms over most of the area Saturday
evening, which slowly exits east by around midnight. Behind this way
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but
PWATS do drop below 1.75 inches for the second half of the
overnight. Deep layer shear is 30-45 kts in the 0-6km layer and 0-1
km shear could be upwards of 30 kts, along with impressive 0-1km SRH
values. It`s still far out in time to dive into all the details,
but SPC does have a 2-5% tornado probability outlook for most
of the area...so this will need to be watched closely Saturday
evening/night, with very low LCLs expected. Areal average
rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected Saturday night into
Sunday, with the highest totals of 2.5"+ forecast over Oneida
County. Outside of the rain and t`storms it will be very muggy
with lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s Saturday night.

As hinted at above, the latest model guidance appears to be slowing
down the frontal passage somewhat. This would allow instability to
build later Sunday morning, midday and early afternoon especially
south and east of a line from near Utica--Ithaca and Elmira. The
latest SPC day 3 outlooks keeps much of the forecast area under a
marginal risk for severe, with the Slight Risk just clipping eastern
Sullivan and Pike Counties. Overall PoPs are lower on Sunday,
expecting more in the way of scattered showers and storms. Humid in
the morning, with drier air gradually filtering in from the NW by
afternoon. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s
for most locations. Winds turn west-northwest a 8-15 mph, so
becoming  a little breezy in the afternoon.

By Sunday night, the upper level trough settles in over the area.
This will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast over
Central NY, with partly to mostly cloudy skies areawide. Turing
cooler with winds gradually diminishing; lows dip down into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
415 AM Update

Quiet weather expected Monday night through Wednesday under upper
level ridging, with a corresponding surface high over the region.
This will bring dry, mostly clear/sunny weather, along with a
warming trend. Monday night starts off a bit cool, with lows in the
upper 40s to mid-50s. It warms up nicely into the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday afternoon, with low humidity. Milder Tuesday
night, then above average Wednesday afternoon (83-90F) as thicknesses
reach 576dm and temperatures aloft reach +17-18C. Can`t rule
out some late day or evening thunderstorms for the western
portion of the area on Wednesday, but the better probabilities
of thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday night as a weak front
pushes through. Early outlook for Independence Day is warm and
humid with a chance for a few thunderstorms around. Similar
conditions persist into next Friday. Highs are forecast to be
well into the 80s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue at all terminal sites for the rest
of this afternoon and evening. Some showers are expected to move
in around 08-09Z with ELM, ITH and SYR having the best
opportunity of seeing this activity, but showers appear light
enough that terminals are expected to stay VFR. Winds are
expected to increase beginning tonight and become more
noticeable tomorrow with most terminals expected to gust to at
least 20-25 knots. A better chance of showers begins to move in
late in the TAF period and those showers can be locally heavy so
there is the potential for reduced visibilities and ceilings,
especially after 16Z. Upstream activity is generally associated
with MVFR- Fuel Alt. conditions, so followed that trend with
this update. The risk for thunder appears low through the end of
the TAF with instability not expected to increase until late
afternoon or into the evening hours tomorrow night.

LLWS has been included for SYR toward the end of the TAF, and
despite guidance not being to aggressive with it, soundings
support the development of LLWS at the rest of the terminals
after 18Z tomorrow as well, generally between 20Z-00Z from about
1200-1600 feet AGL, so this will be monitored. Soundings also
show most terminals with about 20 to close to 30 knots of shear
during the early morning hours tomorrow several hundred feet
AGL, so this too is something to monitor.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for restrictions with
showers late for CNY terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.
LLWS possible at all terminals late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/ES
NEAR TERM...DK/ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK