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510
FXUS61 KBGM 241807
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Gusty winds will continue into the early evening before high
pressure builds in. Tonight will be cool with temperatures
warming back up into the 80s tomorrow but stay mostly dry.
Wednesday has a chance at seeing some some severe thunderstorms
once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and south.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet
passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface
at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with
hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting
45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of
the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with
loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have
winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley
wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for
the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk
valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will
be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East
of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as
drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region
and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in
higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry
but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the
northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the
Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is
low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any
propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping
south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there
is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

The ridge breaks down Tuesday night, bringing zonal flow aloft
and SW flow in the low levels. Warm moist air returns to the
region thanks to this pattern, with overnight lows only falling
into the mid to upper 60s. A weak shortwave looks to push into
the area overnight, bringing a chance for rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms from Oneida county to the Finger Lakes.
Confidence in the showers developing is low given a lack of deep
moisture and the surface high still strong enough to influence
weather of the CWA. Best chance for precip will be north of the
Thruway, but showers across CNY cannot be ruled out.

The next chance for severe weather arrives Wednesday afternoon.
A positively tilted trough will dig into the Mid-Atlantic from
the Great Lakes during the late overnight and morning hours. The
path and tilt of this trough will keep winds mostly WSW over the
area, not allowing the hottest air from the south to make it
into the CWA. Rather, it moves into the Mid- Atlantic and up the
coast into Southern New England. The Twin Tiers, NEPA and the
southern Catskills will still climb into the upper 80s to low
90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This allows for CAPE to climb
into the 2000-2500 j/kg range over this area with 1000-1500 j/kg
to the north. Bulk shear values are also modeled strong, between
35-45kts out of the SW. A mid level shortwave will be the main
driver of afternoon showers and storms and how far south this
feature is as it crosses the CWA will determine the area with
the highest chances for severe weather. Currently, guidance has
it crossing central PA into southern NY. This puts the
Twin Tiers, NEPA and southern Catskills in the severe weather
Goldilocks zone. A shift north or south of the shortwave would
thus move this zone according, so we will be paying close
attention to it.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain through the overnight
hours as the cold front associated with the trough moves through
the area. This is another feature we will be watching closely as
guidance has sped up its arrival into the CWA over the past
couple of days and if it can sync up a little better with the
shortwave ahead of it, severe chances will increase across the
area. With the front pushing through during the early overnight
hours, temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s over NY and low
to mid 60s over PA.

A strong ridge will build into the region Thursday, bringing NW
flow and a shot of Canadian air, keeping temperatures cool and
skies mostly clear. Highs will be in the 70s, with very low
humidity. The high pressure center moves right over the CWA
Thursday night, allowing for efficient radiational cooling that
push temps down into the the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 AM Update...

High pressure holds on through Friday, bringing a very nice end
to the work week. The weekend sees a return to active weather
unfortunately as a positively tilted upper level trough moves
into the region from the Great Lakes. A warm front and shortwave
pushing through Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday
will allow for rain and thunderstorm chances through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Cigs have mostly raised to VFR but winds are very gusty out of
the NW. These winds will slowly lessen through the afternoon
into 0Z tonight as high pressure builds in. Cigs will be
scattering out through the rest of the dry air as the high
pressure moves in as well. Vis restrictions were removed from
ELM as the dry air moving in has brought dew points down far
enough that there is a good chance that the terminal will be fog
free. Tomorrow is looking VFR at all terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...VFR likely.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG