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389
FXUS61 KBTV 240019
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
819 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this
evening. The greatest threats are damaging winds, hail, and the
potential for a tornado. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding in areas that receive multiple storms. Quieter but
still unsettled weather continues into the start of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 819 PM EDT Sunday...The Tornado Watch has ended as more
favorable low level moisture and helicity has departed to the
southeast of our region. Additionally, a plume of very dry air
aloft has moved into northern New York and far northwestern
Vermont ahead of the upstream cold front to minimize deep
convection. In much of Vermont, where mixed layer CAPE exceeds
500 J/kg this evening and effective shear is up around 40 knots,
there remains potential for strong thunderstorms. However, it
is becoming increasingly unlikely with better forcing both north
and south/east of the area. Generally thunderstorm chances
look reasonable through 11 PM, then they clear out from west to
east overnight.

Previous Discussion...
Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across
the forecast area this afternoon, producing heavy rain, damaging
winds, frequent lightning, and hail. There remains the
potential for a tornado with any of these thunderstorms.

Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers
will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating
and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold
front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few
degrees above seasonable averages. Any additional showers and storms
will result in anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to a
quarter of an inch of fresh rainfall. Winds are likely to remain
elevated aloft overnight.

For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide
across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers.
An isolated thunderstorm remains possible, but it is not likely, and
it would not be severe. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees
cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Showers will come
to an end tomorrow night as dry air finally takes hold of our
forecast area and forcing moves away. Lows will fall into the 50s
for most.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday will see plenty of sunshine
with no precipitation expected. Highs will reach into the lower
to mid 80s. Monday night`s lows will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, but Tuesday night will be a good 5-10 degrees warmer
as flow starts to shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will spread across much of the region late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, but the bulk of the activity associated with
the cold front will hold off until after daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be the most active of the
period as moisture streams back northward ahead of a cold front
moving in from the west. While model soundings continue to indicate
a potential capping warm layer around 800 mb, still expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front and/or along a pre-
frontal trough. SB CAPE values are progged to reach 500-1200 J/kg,
and with 0-6km shear of 30-40kt, strong to severe thunderstorms
would possible. We`ll continue to monitor trends as this system gets
closer.

The cold front moves through by Wednesday night, ushering in a drier
airmass. High pressure will settle over the region, bringing a
couple of dry, pleasant days with seasonable highs in the 70s to
around 80F and lows in the 40s and 50s. Our next chance of rain will
move in on Saturday with another frontal system lifting across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...After an active afternoon of convective
thunderstorms, all terminals are currently VFR, although some
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for the next hour or
so. Ceilings will trend towards MVFR conditions overnight into
tomorrow morning, with additional showers possible throughout
the forecast period. Some isolated IFR may also be possible.
Winds are currently southerly between 5 to 15 knots, with some
gusts up to almost 30 knots, with winds shifting to the
northwest throughout the forecast period. Some LLWS will be
possible overnight, especially at mountain terminals like KSLK
and KMPV.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kremer