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140
FXUS61 KBTV 231939
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this
evening. The greatest threats are damaging winds, hail, and the
potential for a tornado. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding in areas that receive multiple storms. Quieter but
still unsettled weather continues into the start of the work week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
are moving across the forecast area this afternoon, producing heavy
rain, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and hail. There remains
the potential for a tornado with any of these thunderstorms.

Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers
will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating
and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold
front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few
degrees above seasonable averages. Any additional showers and storms
will result in anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to a
quarter of an inch of fresh rainfall. Winds are likely to remain
elevated aloft overnight.

For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide
across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers.
An isolated thunderstorm remains possible, but it is not likely, and
it would not be severe. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees
cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Showers will come
to an end tomorrow night as dry air finally takes hold of our
forecast area and forcing moves away. Lows will fall into the 50s
for most.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday will see plenty of sunshine
with no precipitation expected. Highs will reach into the lower
to mid 80s. Monday night`s lows will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, but Tuesday night will be a good 5-10 degrees warmer
as flow starts to shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will spread across much of the region late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, but the bulk of the activity associated with
the cold front will hold off until after daybreak.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be the most active of the
period as moisture streams back northward ahead of a cold front
moving in from the west. While model soundings continue to indicate
a potential capping warm layer around 800 mb, still expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front and/or along a pre-
frontal trough. SB CAPE values are progged to reach 500-1200 J/kg,
and with 0-6km shear of 30-40kt, strong to severe thunderstorms
would possible. We`ll continue to monitor trends as this system gets
closer.

The cold front moves through by Wednesday night, ushering in a drier
airmass. High pressure will settle over the region, bringing a
couple of dry, pleasant days with seasonable highs in the 70s to
around 80F and lows in the 40s and 50s. Our next chance of rain will
move in on Saturday with another frontal system lifting across the
region.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are firing up
across the forecast area this afternoon, any of which could
produce low ceilings and low visibilities. A Tornado Watch has
been issued for our entire forecast area, which includes all of
our TAF sites. This means severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Stay tuned to forecast updates, monitor sky
conditions, and know where to take shelter. Most sites are
currently VFR conditions except for EFK and MPV, which have low
ceilings MVFR and IFR, respectively. Conditions will continue to
trend toward MVFR ceilings for most sites with scattered to
numerous thunderstorms around. Conditions may bounce between
VFR, MVFR, and even IFR at times. Winds are currently fairly
gusty 15-30 knots out of the south and southwest, turning
northwesterly throughout this next 24 hour period. With strong
winds just above the surface, low level wind shear will be a
concern for several hours from 20Z Sunday to 14Z Monday at BTV,
SLK, and MPV.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm