-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
997
FXUS61 KBTV 202248
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There are some isolated showers developing over the region this
afternoon, rainfall will be light. Weather conditions will
become dry once again heading into next week, but with more
seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and
lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 644 PM EDT Friday... A few isolated showers have developed
this evening across Vermont and they will push westward and
weaken as the evening goes on. Much of the cumulus that
developed during the day is starting to erode, but higher
clouds from the west and east will move in later tonight.
Increased PoPs a little to reflect radar, but overall, the
forecast is in good shape and no significant changes were made.

Previous forecast...A little bit of upper level shortwave
energy is pushing into our area from the east, and some isolated
showers have popped up. These showers are very isolated and
only very light rainfall is expected. Conditions will once again
become clear overnight with light flow remaining, will see
valley fog develop again. Minimum temperatures overnight will
dip into the upper 40s to upper 50s. Saturday will continue to
feature dry and quiet weather. This will be00 the first day in a
while that we`re not seeing temperatures creep up into the 80s,
so it may feel on the cool side although it`s still warmer than
seasonal normals. Afternoon maximum temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Cooling trend will continue for
Saturday night with low temperatures dipping into the mid 40s to
mid 50s, and we could once again see some fog in the valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...Dry weather will persist for the
second half of the weekend as the region remains under the
influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, and feel quite fall-
like after this recent warmth, especially with some partially
sunny skies. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the
40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...The region will remain under the
influence of high pressure and upper level ridging through the
beginning of next week, bringing another day or two of dry
weather.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable
precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough over
the Great Lakes region shifts northeastwards towards Quebec.
This pattern shift will bring increased chances of showers,
which will be beneficial given how dry most of the month of
September has been. Model consensus shows the greatest chances
for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes
into northern New York with the low pressure to our west. Beyond
Wednesday, there continue to be chances for scattered showers,
but there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of
the synoptic pattern, so trends will need to be monitored.
Temperatures next week will continue to be rather seasonable,
with daytime highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s and overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday... Winds have generally been light and
variable today and will remain that way through the period as
very light flow is in place. Some patchy valley fog may again
develop tonight after 06z. At this time best chances for fog are
at SLK and MPV, though can`t be ruled out at other sites. Any
fog that forms will lift by about 13z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Neiles