Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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864 FXUS61 KBTV 082316 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 716 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will continue to control the regions weather through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each day, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier conditions return mid-week along with more seasonally warm temperatures, but the threat for showers returns for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 714 PM EDT Saturday...Showers are diminishing as one trough exits and with loss of heating. A brief interlude of high pressure will occur late this evening before the next precipitation moves into the region shortly after midnight. No large changes necessary with the forecast verifying well. Previous Discussion...Today has basically been a rinse and repeat of yesterday in regard to diurnally driven showers developing from mid- morning through the afternoon, but the big difference has been the lack of instability and areal coverage as mid-level heights have been slowly rising in response to an upper trough lifting out of the region. Lingering showers this afternoon will dissipate towards sunset with quiet conditions expected for the majority of night as weak ridging develops. Mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail with overnight lows ranging through the 50s. Early Sunday our next shortwave trough currently over Lake Superior approaches, and centers over the region in the afternoon. A batch of more stratiform rain is expected to precede the trough tracking through the region from 09-15Z before moving out, but soundings for the afternoon continue to show steepening low level lapse rates and the development of modest instability of 500-800 J/kg of CAPE supporting some isolated thunderstorm development. Expect areal coverage for the afternoon to be more than today, but less than Friday and small hail from any stronger cores is certainly a possibility as well with freezing levels only progged to be around 7000 feet. Highs will remain on the cool side of normal in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The center of a closed mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation wl be located over northern Maine at 12z Monday, with several embedded s/w pieces of energy still rotating acrs our cwa. This energy, combined with cyclonic northwest upslope flow, and favorable 850 to 500mb rh>70% supports the idea of chc to low likely pops for Monday. Crnt progged position of forcing and deepest moisture, would have the mtns of northern/central VT and parts of the NEK with the highest pops, while values taper off toward the SLV and lower CPV/CT Valley on Monday. Given cold core aloft and limited instability, feel probability of thunder is <15% attm and wl not include in crnt fcst. Furthermore, the NBM shows probability of sfc based CAPE >400 J/kg only in the 10-20% range acrs southern/central VT on Monday, indicating limited instability. We wl cont to monitor trends if more clearing/heating can develop for greater threat for a rumble or two. Otherwise, progged 925mb temps are pretty cool for this time of year with values in the 8-10C range, supporting highs mostly in the 60s to lower 70s near VSF. Monday night areal coverage of precip quickly dissipates as weak sfc ridging tries to build into our cwa. The cyclonic flow aloft still supports the idea of lingering clouds with maybe a light shower over the trrn, but mostly dry conditions should prevail. If pockets of clearing develop, patchy fog is possible, but feel probability is <20% attm given clouds and winds, but something to watch. Lows range from the lower 40s to mid 50s on Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The large scale pattern wl feature a drier and warmer setup for mid to late week, typical of early to mid June. The probability of precip increases in the Thurs/Friday timeframe, but have kept values in the 20-35% range for now. In addition, neither day looks to be a complete washout, but more typical of aftn/evening showers/storms associated with s/w energy and passage of several boundaries. Given the developing fast flow aloft, timing s/w energy and associated boundaries becomes increasingly more difficult in the later periods. Weak short wave ridge tries to develop on Tues into Weds as small/compacted vort slides off the mid Atlantic with best forcing and moisture staying south of our cwa. Progged 925mb temps warm a few degrees with values 12-14C on Tues and 15-17C on Weds, supporting highs 70s on Tues and mid 70s to lower 80s by Weds. Given the drying profiles have expanded the overnight low ranges from lower 40s to mid/upper 50s Weds and upper 40s to near 60F by Thurs. By late week elongated s/w energy associated with mid/upper lvl trof passing to our nw results in modest height falls acrs the ne conus. This energy combined with slightly better instability and moisture results in chc pops on Thurs/Fri. If crnt progs hold, granted its 6 to 7 days away and always subject to change, high pres builds into our cwa for a drying trend toward next weekend. Increasing south/southwest flow ahead of elongated energy wl help to advect warmer temps back into our cwa, with progged 925mb temps back into the 18-20C range by Thurs/Friday supporting highs upper 70s to mid 80s. Crnt guidance keeps warmest temps and best instability mostly south of our cwa for the next 5 to 7 days. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through 09Z Sunday with scattered to numerous showers through 00Z briefly reducing vsby/cigs to MVFR. Winds will be additionally gusty up to 22kts at KMSS/KSLK through 00Z, otherwise WSW at 8-12kts with gusts to 16-18kts before trending calm overnight. After 09Z Sunday, another round of more prevailing rain moves into the region along with MVFR ceilings and visibility, though lowest vis will be south. Winds pick up again from the SSW at 8-10kts after 14Z. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Lahiff