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446
FXUS61 KBUF 240252
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1052 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler less humid air will filter into the region tonight...and
while we could still a few showers through Monday...we can be
guaranteed a much more comfortable start to the week. Warmer weather
will return for Tuesday and especially Wednesday when oppressive
humidity levels will once again take hold on our region. The most
unsettled day of the work week will be Wednesday when the heat and
humidity will combine with a pair of frontal passages to generate
showers and potentially strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
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Wrap around moisture form a shortwave over Ontario will circulate
across the region overnight. This feature will include some
showers...especially east of Lake Ontario. Low temperatures tonight
will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thats a 10 to 15 degree
drop from overnight lows of the past week.

A potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface low will pass
through the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Lingering moisture
and lift from the passing trough will keep the potential for some
showers and perhaps and isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms in
the forecast through Monday afternoon, mainly east of the Genesee
Valley. Some gusty north-northwest winds will also be possible on
Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the
trough. Otherwise, Monday will see relief from the oppressive heat
and humidity of the past week. It will be notably cooler and
less humid Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will start to build into the region Monday evening,
bringing an end to any lingering showers. The expectation is that
dry weather will persist through Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the region. A warm front approaches the region late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We might see a shower or an isolated
thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A better chance for showers and
storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold front nears the lower Great
Lakes.

After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns
Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the
upper 70s to lower to mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with
most locales found in the 80s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While many of the TAF sites will open this TAF period with VFR
conditions...cigs will average 1500-2500 feet for tonight. There is
the potential for mainly IFR cigs east of Lake Ontario during the
overnight. The lower cigs will be accompanied by some showers at
times.

On Monday...IFR (east of Lk Ont) to MVFR cigs in the morning will
improve to VFR conditions by the afternoon. Showers will be
likely...mainly from the Finger Lakes eastward through early
afternoon. A thunderstorm or cannot be ruled out...especially over
the North Country.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories have been expanded to include all of the
nearshore waters...and in some cases extended...as fresh to strong
southwesterlies will veer to the west-northwest through tonight into
Monday.

The axis of a large area of high pressure will move from the Upper
Great lakes and Ohio valley Monday morning to the Lower Great Lakes
late Monday into Tuesday. This will allow winds and waves to subside
during that period with no additional headlines expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for
     NYZ001>003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NYZ004>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for NYZ019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...AR/JM/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH