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600
FXUS62 KCAE 261733
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
133 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Very hot temperatures will continue into next week, with heat
indices exceeding 105 F across the area today. Rain and storm
chances start to increase Thursday with noticeable higher
moisture building into the region. Much the same will continue
through the weekend, with hot afternoon temps and a chance of
rain each afternoon-evening.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat Advisory in effect today for the eastern forecast area
  as heat indices expected to reach 108-110 in the eastern
  Midlands.
- Isolated storms develop along the sea breeze late afternoon.

Hot temps continue to build with highs exceeding 100 F this
afternoon for most of the area. PWAT`s have climbed back above
1.5" with surface dew points mixing down into upper-mid 60`s.
Some weak height falls aloft will weaken the mid-level capping
enough this afternoon to allow some more scattered convection to
drive into the eastern Midlands. Severe threat is primarily wind
but should remain fairly isolated given the lack of forcing and
only modest instability.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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KEY MESSAGES:
- Excessive heat continues with a significant increase in
 humidity levels and rainfall chances.

A weak upper level trough pushes into the region on Thursday. This
trough allows sub tropical moisture to advect inland which increases
the precipitable water levels to above 1.75 inches. The forcing with
the upper trough and the increase in mid level moisture should lead
to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will again be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
with heat indices 102-107 degrees.

The upper level trough fills in over the Southeast U.S. Friday
through Saturday which allows the high aloft to rebuild overhead.
Precipitable water levels should be in excess of two inches both
days. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to around 100
with heat indices in the 102-107 degree range. A Heat Advisory may
be needed on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible given the deep moisture in place and daytime
insolation.
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&&

.LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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KEY MESSAGES:
- Above normal temperatures persist with excessive potential on
  Sunday.

High pressure aloft retrogrades into the Southern Plains early next
week in response to an upper level trough moving through the Great
Lakes States and New England. A cold front associated with this
upper level trough should move into the Carolinas and Georgia Sunday
Night through Monday and increase rainfall chances. The lower H5
heights should allow high temperatures to decrease into the low to
mid 90s Monday through Tuesday, before warming again on Wednesday.

Precipitable water levels are expected to be in excess of two inches
through this forecast period. There will be a good chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Heat
indices may approach or exceed advisory criteria on Sunday.
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&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR expected through the period, a few afternoon-evening storms
possible.

A typical hot summer day and evening is expected with a high
based cumulus field will continue to develop and a few
scattered storms and showers are possible. As we mix out
further, some gusty winds out of the south are expected, up to
20-25 knots. Confidence is still too low for a TAF mention for
any precip or thunder at this time. Some stratus is possible
again Thursday morning but it is not expected to be as
widespread as Wednesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased chance of showers-storms
with restrictions each afternoon Thursday through Sunday as
additional moisture moves over the region.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-022-
     027>029-031-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...