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362
FXUS63 KDDC 301900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Drying out for the most part, although some storms possible
  late tonight along Interstate 70

- Hot tomorrow with a chance of storms NW counties

- Hot Tuesday and then another MCS pattern developing thereafter
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The FA will dry out this afternoon as any shower activity diminishes
with time. There still is upslope flow across eastern Colorado this
afternoon. As such, I would expect late afternoon and evening storms
developing in this region. This activity should not impact much of
the FA with the exception across the Interstate 70 corridor late
tonight. By the time it gets to the FA, would expect the only threat
to be lightning and some brief heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the rest
of the FA will see quiet weather with near normal lows.

For Monday, the lee trough will deepen during the day. A bit of downslope
SSW winds are expected across a portion of the FA. As such, do expect
hotter highs Monday with values in the mid to upper 90s. One exception
to this is for the areas that experienced the heaviest rainfall Sunday.
This area is the Dodge City to Bucklin to Coldwater to Mullinville
communities. Heating might be slowed a little with the very wet ground
here and went with slightly cooler highs. There might be evening storms
developing across the NW counties Monday evening and possibly expanding
east as the night continues across the Interstate 70 corridor. The
main threat with this activity would be strong/gusty winds and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. The rest of the FA should be dry.

More hot highs looks likely Tuesday. EPS has >90% probabilities of
>90F for much of the FA. The main exception to this is across the
NW zones, which is in closer proximity to an approaching weak front.
This front looks to eventually stall out Wednesday across the state.
Storms will be possible in association with this boundary. The 20%
to 60% pops from the NBM looks good enough for now to capture this
storm potential. The upslope flow pattern, which is an MCS pattern
may continue somewhat Thursday but with better chances Friday.
Highs wouldn`t likely bet as hot under this potentially wetter
weather pattern to close out the extended period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Shra and isolated tsra will continue across the terminals but should
diminish with time this afternoon as the main UL wave moves through.
Another round of shra/tsra may be possible late this evening across
KHYS. Otherwise, LIFR to IFR cigs will slowly improve this afternoon
to MVFR or VFR as rain shield/low cigs erodes with time. VFR is expected
towards end of TAF pd for all terminals. Winds will be E to SE 10-20
kt through the overnight pd.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden