-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
157
FXUS63 KDDC 262040
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
340 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Two rounds of storms, which are marginally severe, are
  expected to enter Kansas from Colorado Wednesday and late
  Wednesday night.

- Thursday through Saturday, a broad pattern favorable for MCS
  will take hold providing multiple rounds for storm systems.

- The end of the period after the weekend will see the previous
  pattern clear with the potential (>65% via ensembles) of 100F
  temperatures returning to the forecast area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A large upper-level ridge continues to dominate the pattern.
Despite this, Wednesday into Thursday will feature two rounds
of precipitation chances (25% and 55% from ensembles
respectively). CAMs have initiation around 20Z located
approximately at the CO/OK/NM border. The 12Z NAM place large
amounts of CVA and vertical velocity ahead of those storms in
far SE Colorado into SW Kansas. As the mid- level support
combats the unfavorable conditions aloft, CAMs produce various
solutions for the storms as they enter Kansas. The HRRR shows
the storms struggling to make it past the border while the
NAMNST, HRW FV3, and HRW WRF- NSSL all has storms clipping the
far SW couple counties. The only concurrence the models hold has
been a consistent downward trend of these storms the last
couple days. CAPE values >2000 J/kg and effective shear values
>40 knots would be sufficient in supporting brief severe storm
development/maintenance. DCAPE values nearing 2000 J/kg and
steep low level lapse rates of 9.5 C/km contribute to winds
being the primary threat. However, the associated severe
potential is quite limited due to the lifespan of the storms
after entering the forecast area.

The second round of storms appear more robust, but similar
disagreement exists between CAMs; around 5Z, storms of various
modes and strengths are shown to enter west central Kansas.
Supple PWATs of >1.5 inches shown on NAMNST forecast soundings
will feed these storms well into the morning as it moves across
our northern zones. The most organized parts of this system
create the best chance (>55% from ensembles) of precipitation
in the forecast area through the interstate 70 corridor. Less
organized convection could disperse across the entire forecast
area as ensembles hold a >10% chance for the entire area.

Into Thursday after the storm system moves trough, an
associated winds shift will have south winds prevail during the
day. Around 22Z yet another round of precipitation is expected
to move through. This MCS signal is tracked by ensembles to
follow a similar path as the previous round of precipitation.
North of highway 56 represents a meaningful chance (>33%) for
accumulating precipitation and the best chance (>50) northwest
of the Hays to Garden City axis. Precipitation means from the
ensembles struggle to reach 0.25 inches of accumulation due to
the speed of the system and fairly limited coverage. Despite
this, forecast soundings have notable amounts of instability
(CAPE of 2500 J/kg) and moisture (70F dewpoints) that create a
severe threat where the CAP can be overcome.

Friday will see temperatures rise as ensembles return 100F
temperatures to our southeastern zones, however the latest
trends have pulled back the surface heating and lingering
outflow from the previous MCS could contribute in temperatures
struggling to reach the 100F mark. Saturday night has yet
another MCS signal across ensembles, but the broad area of lower
probabilities put pause in the exact timing and location of
this system.

The rest of the forecast currently looks to provide reprieve
from the MCS abundant pattern. Near the end of the forecast
period into Monday and Tuesday, ensembles have +100F
temperatures returning without MCS interference.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF
period. Winds will slowly shift between ENE and SSE at <20 knots
until near the end of the TAF period. Thunderstorms are
expected through the overnight with exact timing and location
uncertain. Therefore, TAFs include mention of VCTS to account
for this at 7Z at GCK, 8Z at LBL, 9Z at DDC, and 11Z at HYS.
Future updates will hold more precise timings and impact on
terminals.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ