-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
705
FXUS63 KDVN 252214
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
514 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...Updated for 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures through the end of September.

- Dry conditions will persist as Helene remnants now appear to
  predominantly miss our CWA.

- Much cooler, but near normal, into early October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tonight, high pressure will provide clear skies and calm
conditions across much of the region. Temperatures will drop
into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some patchy ground fog will also
be possible late tonight similar to earlier this morning. Any
fog that does form should dissipate shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Thursday through Monday, dry conditions and above normal
temperatures will continue to persist. Models have come into
better agreement and are showing the remnants of Helene will
likely (>80%) not reach into our far east and southeast counties
for Friday night through Sunday. This southeastern shift has
been the trend for the past few days. While not entirely out of
the CWA, the highest POPs are now just slights (under 20%)
mainly for portions of Hancock, McDonough, Bureau, and Putnam
counties. High pressure over the area and the arc of subsidence
on the NNW periphery of the Helene remnants will result in
mostly sunny skies for much of the area Saturday through Monday.
Friday we will see an increase in cloud coverage across the
southeast half of the CWA along with gusty NE winds. Highs
through Monday will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Normally
highs are in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, a strong cold front will move through
the area followed by a Canadian high pressure area settling
over the area. This fropa is lacking moisture and will come
through dry, only being noted by winds becoming northwest and a
much cooler air mass filtering into the region. Highs Tuesday
will be considerably colder with readings in the mid 60s to near
70, which is just a tad below normal for the first of October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 510 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR is expected to prevail with cumulus dissipating with sunset
leaving behind clear skies and light winds. Valley fog is possible
late tonight and early Thursday (08z-13z), but confidence on
impacts at the terminals is too low for mention with the 00z TAFs.
Cumulus with VFR bases is expected again by Thursday PM with winds
shifting from the E/NE and increasing to around 10 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...McClure