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141
FXUS63 KFGF 152319
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
619 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 1 out of 5 severe risk for portions of eastern
  North Dakota early Monday morning and then again late Monday
  afternoon and evening.

- Threat for heavy rain this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A broken cloud deck continues to shift away from the Red River
Valley this evening, with high level clouds moving through
eastern ND. Temperatures are in the 80s, with dew points in the
60s. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the Northern Plains,
bringing a pretty active pattern to the region into the first
part of next week. Timing of shortwaves is not exact, but it
does look like there will be a fairly significant lifting up
tonight into the northern Red River Valley tomorrow, with
several other weaker shortwaves also coming through. The main
upper low will continue to rotate over the Northern Rockies
through mid-week, before starting to come east Thursday into
Friday although there is variation on how the blocking to our
east is handled. It does look continued active but a bit cooler.

...Severe potential late tonight into Monday night...

Weak shortwave and some moderate, but quickly weakening
instability could bring some thunderstorms to west central MN
this evening, but deep layer bulk shear is minimal and do not
expect much from these storms. The low level jet will ramp up
over the central Dakotas later tonight, and along with some
elevated instability, bring some thunderstorm activity after 12Z
for our far western Devils Lake and Sheyenne Basin counties.
Shear is a bit better, around 35 kts, and cannot rule out an
isolated elevated hailer as storms move into our area from
central ND during the early morning hours. While there is
expected to be a bit of a break after the low level jet weakens,
the MCV left over by the overnight convection could provide a
focus for redevelopment across portions of northeastern ND and
northwestern MN. Depending on how exactly well we destabilize
after the morning round of convection, could see good CAPE of
around 2000 J/kg and shear of around 30 kts or so. If this
scenario pans out, some supercells with large hail and even a
tornado are not out of the question. On the other hand, if the
MCV moves faster than expected or we do not destabilize enough,
there will be no storms. So threat is very conditional and thus
only at the marginal level currently.

...Active pattern and heavy rainfall potential...

With southwesterly flow aloft continuing and the southeasterly
surface winds still bringing warm moist air into the region,
showers and thunderstorms will continue on and off and there
will be some heavy rain potential for at least some of the days
and an overall soggy week. Probabilities for one inch or more of
rain over 72 hours range from 40 to 70 percent for several time
periods over the next week, and there are even some
probabilities of over 2 inches near 50 percent. Much of this is
over an extended period of time and shouldn`t be a flash flood
threat, but could have agricultural and hydrological impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

BKN Clouds continue to move east of the Red River Valley this
evening, with SCT to FEW clouds throughout the valley. Areas
toward DVL are seeing SKC. Winds remain light and variable
through 12z before turning toward the southeast and later the
south by the end of the TAF period. Skies turn BKN tomorrow
morning and transition to SCT by the early afternoon. End of the
TAF period BKN to OVC skies set in for the TAF locations.
Precipitation chances increase around 10-12z for DVL, with a few
thunderstorms possible. Brief break in activity, with -SHRA for
DVL post 15z. Around 20-22z TVF, GFK, and DVL will see an
increase in precipitation chances, with thunderstorm chances end
of the TAF period.
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&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Spender