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615
FXUS64 KHGX 252035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The upper level ridge over Southern CONUS has yet to go anywhere,
however we have seen a slight weakening in the past few days,
causing it to shift towards our west. This is allowing for a trough
to make itself known to our east, and shifts us into a more
northerly flow aloft. Between this and positive vorticity
sneaking into the region, things are looking a tad more
interesting for tomrorrow`s rain chances. Guidance suggests this
may slightly increase the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday evening (generally less than 20%), however new rainfall
amounts are likely to be less than 0.1 inches.

Tomorrow`s highs remain in the 90s, low-90s along the coast and mid-
90s in our areas further towards the north. Temperatures tonight are
going to be in the upper-70s through much of the region, though the
Houston-metro and our coastal areas are likely to not fall below 80.
Tomorrow night is much of the same, though some areas may reach the
mid-70s. These warm nocturnal temperatures will only make our hot
afternoons feel worse, so make sure you are drinking plenty of water
and check in on neighbors and family members.

Speaking of warm temperatures, the Heat Advisory is still in effect
until 8pm CDT, so take caution when doing strenuous outdoor
activity. Guidance is trending towards high heat indices tomorrow
afternoon as well, which we will be monitoring carefully overnight.
Regardless of whether or not another Heat Advisory is issued, the
heat index is likely to be in the triple-digits throughout the
entire region.

Ellis
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The dominant midlevel ridge over the South Central CONUS will
build slightly heading into the weekend, allowing for a slight
increase in daily maximum temperatures. In general, the synoptic
pattern will continue to support hot and humid conditions with
daily heat index values approaching Advisory thresholds at times.
Highs will generally sit in the mid to upper 90s through Saturday,
potentially reaching the triple digits for a few inland locations
on Sunday and Monday. These elevated temperatures, as well as dew
points in the mid to upper 70s, will at least prompt a
consideration for Heat Advisories as apparent temperatures
approach the 107-110 mark for many of our inland zones. With skies
generally remaining mostly clear to partly cloudy, abundant
incoming solar radiation will produce High to Extreme WBGT values
each afternoon. Heat stress will be further compounded by elevated
overnight lows, with values sitting in the upper 70s inland and
lower 80s along the immediate coast/barrier islands.

Given the risk of heat-related illnesses posed by these
conditions, it will be important to keep heat safety precautions
in mind. This includes taking actions like remaining hydrated,
applying sunscreen, wearing light colored and loose fitting
clothing, and avoiding strenuous activities during the hottest
parts of the day.

Daily rainfall chances will continue to be confined to the typical
summertime pattern -- i.e. airmass thunderstorms and
showers/storms triggered by the inland propagation of the sea and
ba breezes. As such, while most of the area at some point over the
extended period could receive some form of measurable rain,
storms should be neither intense nor long-lasting. Rainfall
totals, aside from elevated localized totals in the event of an
isolated stronger storm, will be largely negligible.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

All sites are currently at VFR. Scattered to broken cumulus deck
across Southeast Texas, and expect the VFR to continue for the
rest of the day and into tonight. Winds are expected to be from
the South to South-Southwest for much of the region, and should
range between 5-10 knots. From around 09Z to 15Z MVFR Cigs are
forecast to occur north of I-10. Improvement to VFR is expected
around 15Z for these regions.

Ellis/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Marine conditions reflecting a typical summertime pattern are
expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
with seas ranging from 2-4 ft and daily chances of isolated
thunderstorms. Tide levels will also remain elevated over the
next few days. Conditions should generally remain below caution
thresholds.

Cady
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  78  96  77  97 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  96  78  96 /  10  30  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  91 /  10  20  10  20
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>213-226-227.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ellis/Adams
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Ellis/Adams
MARINE...Cady