-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
276
FXUS64 KHUN 281451
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
951 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 945 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The short wave that helped to instigate shower development across
the area yesterday has moved southward to the N Central Gulf and
in its wake, high pressure aloft is building across the region.
With the lack of more significant forcing, shower/storm
development will be limited mainly to areas of differential
heating boundaries and low-level convergent flow axes. With that
said, eastern portions of the area would appear to be favored for
any development, which is reflected in the current POP forecast.
Analysis of vertical thermal/moisture profiles suggests some
strong downdrafts could occur if cells manage to develop, but
confidence is fairly low that cells will reach significant growth.
Otherwise, the invading MT airmass with dew points in the 70s
combined with expected highs in the low/mid 90s will yield heat
indices near 100 F in a few spots today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper ridging will gradually flatten as an upper shortwave trough
moves over the Midwest Saturday evening and then over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure
will meander westward from Florida over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front will traverse
the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday, approaching
the Tennessee Valley. This pattern will keep abundant moisture in
place and increasing chances for showers/storms through the
weekend. For Saturday, low to medium chances (35-55%) of showers
and storms are forecast for the northwestern portion of our local
area and medium to high chances (55-70%) over the southeastern
portion. Anticipating the best coverage of showers and storms on
Sunday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, with medium to high
chances (60-70%) of showers and storms. Once again, bulk shear
values do not look impressive but we will have ample instability
since it`s summertime. Therefore, expect brief, heavy rain,
lightning, and maybe some gusty winds with any storms this
weekend.

Beyond the shower and storm chances, it will be hot. High
temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s for most
areas both Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps upper 80s to lower
90s for northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle
Tennessee on Saturday. Moisture will be elevated through the
weekend area-wide, along with lows merely dropping into the lower
to mid 70s Friday and Saturday nights. At this time, heat indices
range between 97-103 degrees for most locations on Saturday. Heat
indices for a few spots in the Huntsville area and near Muscle
Shoals may even reach the 105 degree mark. It will then be a
little warmer on Sunday, with heat indices in the 99-105 degree
range. We will have to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon for the
need of any heat products, as it looks to be the hottest day
(especially for heat indices) for the short term period. Again,
please remember heat safety! Take frequent breaks in the shade,
wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and stay hydrated!
Remember your pets too. If it`s too hot for you, it`s too hot for
them! Take caution of hot pavement and make sure they are hydrated
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Excessive heat will be the main story going into the latter half
of the forecast period. A large upper ridge axis over the Plains
states will begin to gradually move eastward heading into the new
work week. At the sfc, high pressure will build eastward across
the upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions in the wake of a departing
cold front to the south. Lingering showers/tstms will also taper
off to the south providing for a dry forecast at least thru Mon
night. The passing frontal boundary should also translate into
slightly cooler temps, with lows Sun night in the upper 60s/near
70F, before temps rebound into the upper 80s/near 90F later in the
day Mon.

The upper ridge pattern will then become entrenched across the
Gulf Coast region starting Tue, with afternoon temps climbing into
the mid/perhaps upper 90s. High pressure moving into the
northern/mid Atlantic Basin will also result in SFC flow veering
to the SE/S, thereby ushering moisture back into the central TN
Valley. Max heat indices likewise may climb near/above 105F,
especially on July 4th. Subsequently, Heat Advisories may be
needed Wed and Thu. In addition to the excessive heat, diurnally
driven showers/tstms (around a 20-40% chc) are possible starting
Tue. Any convective activity will likely be pulse driven given
ample buoyant energy, but little in the way of deep layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Mainly VFR conditions were present at issuance. A few instances
of MVFR CIGs were reported, but the MSL and HSV terminal remain at
VFR. Low chances of showers and storms are forecast this
afternoon, mainly for the southeastern portion of our local area.
Mentioned VCTS in the HSV TAF for now to account for this
(confidence is low that activity forms over MSL). Chances then
dwindle this evening. Light southerly winds this morning will
increase to between 5-10 knots this afternoon. Winds then decrease
to be 5 knots or less this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26