Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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914 FXUS63 KICT 120813 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Seasonably warm to above average temperatures and breezy south winds through at least mid next week. - Widespread triple digit heat indices Thursday. - Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through at least mid next week.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 TODAY--THIS EVENING...With atmospheric thickness and southerly flow increasing, temperatures will warm 3-6 degrees from yesterday`s readings into the upper 80s to mid 90s. An increasing pressure gradient will support breezy/gusty south winds, with gusts reaching 25-30 mph, mainly northwest of the Flint Hills. For this evening, an approaching surface trough from the northwest may serve as a focus for an isolated thunderstorm or two northwest of a Great Bend to Salina line. However, suspect activity will struggle to develop given weak low-level convergence amidst meager upper support and warm mid-level temperatures, so left the forecast dry for now. THURSDAY...Isolated to widely scattered late afternoon-evening thunderstorm chances will be focused over central and north-central Kansas in vicinity of a stalling frontal zone approaching from the north, along with an associated weak ripple in the mid-upper flow. The potential for moderate to strong instability amidst around 30 kts of deep layer effective shear should support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the main threats being large hail and especially damaging winds, driven by impressive DCAPE values. If a decent cold pool can get organized, northwest flow aloft could drive a small thunderstorm complex south-southeast into to near the Highway 50 or Highway 54/400 corridors during the evening. All-in- all, relatively warm mid-level temperatures and weak forcing should preclude widespread activity. Additionally, Thursday should be the hottest day of the next 7-10 days, with forecast high temperatures well into the 90s to low 100s. Combined with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees, afternoon-- early evening heat indices will likely be around 100 to 105 degrees for many across the region. FRIDAY--NEXT WEDNESDAY...This period will feature continued seasonably warm to above average temperatures, breezy south winds, and periodic chances for thunderstorms. Despite rather marginal deep layer shear, periodic bouts of moderate to strong instability should favor a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms throughout this period, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. At this point, it appears the best chances for storms will be Saturday evening-night west of the KS Turnpike ahead of an approaching upper trough, along with next Tuesday evening- Wednesday as a frontal zone approaches from the north. Additionally, widespread triple digit heat looks unlikely, although widespread 90s are probable, with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours at all terminals. A tightening pressure gradient will support breezy/gusty south to slightly southwest winds today from mid-morning into the evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK