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587
FXUS63 KICT 200553
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will return to the region for late Saturday
afternoon/evening and a few could become strong or severe

- Heat will increase over Kansas for Sunday through middle of next
week with a return of dangerously high afternoon heat indices possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Will see some lingering rain showers and a few embedded storms into
the early evening hours over central Kansas. Otherwise dry weather
looks to prevail for the central plains on Thursday and Friday, as
upper level high pressure center retrogrades westward from the
eastern states towards the Mid-Mississippi valley region. South
winds will increase for Friday-Saturday across the region. Meanwhile
GFS/ECMWF models show a upper level wave moving slowly eastward
across the northern plains for Friday night into Saturday. This will
push a frontal boundary southward into Kansas during the late
afternoon hours on Saturday. The combination of low level
convergence along the frontal boundary, decent instability, and
modest increase for mid-upper level winds could generate a few
strong/severe storms over central Kansas late Saturday
afternoon/evening.

The heat will return and build over Kansas for Sunday-Wednesday
as GEFS/EPS model ensembles show upper level high pressure
building over southwestern states with a eastward expansion of
the heat dome. Expecting a mostly dry weather pattern this
period, however any warm air advection across 700mb mid-level
baroclinic zone could spark off some early morning storms.
Afternoon heat indices could surpass advisory levels of 105
degrees or higher for many locations next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area. Isolated
showers and storms continue to fester around the area, can`t
rule out brief instances of VCTS/-TSRA, will amend as needed.
Otherwise, MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are expected to develop
across central KS this morning, potentially extending as far
south as KHUT. Light easterly/variable winds are expected which
may also lead to some patchy fog over the next several hours
given small temp/dewpoint depressions. Confidence in any fog
development is low. Winds will remain on the light side and turn
more S and SE by this afternoon.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...KMB