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459
FXUS63 KICT 192320
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will return to the region for late Saturday
afternoon/evening and a few could become strong or severe

- Heat will increase over Kansas for Sunday through middle of next
week with a return of dangerously high afternoon heat indices possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Will see some lingering rain showers and a few embedded storms into
the early evening hours over central Kansas. Otherwise dry weather
looks to prevail for the central plains on Thursday and Friday, as
upper level high pressure center retrogrades westward from the
eastern states towards the Mid-Mississippi valley region. South
winds will increase for Friday-Saturday across the region. Meanwhile
GFS/ECMWF models show a upper level wave moving slowly eastward
across the northern plains for Friday night into Saturday. This will
push a frontal boundary southward into Kansas during the late
afternoon hours on Saturday. The combination of low level
convergence along the frontal boundary, decent instability, and
modest increase for mid-upper level winds could generate a few
strong/severe storms over central Kansas late Saturday
afternoon/evening.

The heat will return and build over Kansas for Sunday-Wednesday
as GEFS/EPS model ensembles show upper level high pressure
building over southwestern states with a eastward expansion of
the heat dome. Expecting a mostly dry weather pattern this
period, however any warm air advection across 700mb mid-level
baroclinic zone could spark off some early morning storms.
Afternoon heat indices could surpass advisory levels of 105
degrees or higher for many locations next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Minor aviation concerns are possible across central Kansas
tonight into early Thursday morning.

Currently, all TAF sites are experiencing VFR conditions, and
despite a few isolated showers across southeast Kansas this
evening, VFR conditions are expected to continue through at
least 03Z. After 03Z, MVFR cigs will be possible along and
north of a KHUT-KEMP line. The best chances for lower cigs north
of this line will be between 06-12Z Thursday morning. After 12Z
Thursday, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

Winds are expected to remain light and variable across the
region for the rest of today. However, winds are expected to
become more uniform out of the south and southeast by Thursday
morning. Wind speeds will generally remain between 5 and 15
knots through the TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JC