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FXUS62 KILM 031730
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and
more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week.
Daytime heat indices could exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a cold front
stalls inland from the coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No significant changes this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary still
well to the south of the area, that still extends from near
Sapelo Island, GA to offshore. A stout anticyclone sits near
ArkLaTex currently and will slowly move eastward today over the
Deep South. Finally, surface high pressure centered just
offshore of New England carries a broad influence up and down
the eastern seaboard.

This high pressure will control the local forecast through tonight,
keeping a mostly dry regime. Some onshore movement likely keeps some
stratocu near the coast this morning, and that may even allow an
isolated shower or sprinkle to dot some of the coastal areas,
particularly in Georgetown County. This cloud cover will keep highs
in the upper 80s in the coastal regions. Meanwhile, inland areas
will be a bit warmer today, with highs reaching the lower 90s. Heat
indices thankfully avoid the triple digits today (don`t you worry,
it`s coming...hope your AC is ready).

Tonight will see more widespread lows in the lower 70s. Some of the
typical cool spots will dip down into the low-to-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The 500 mb subtropical ridge should be centered across Alabama
on Thursday, moving to the Florida Panhandle on Friday. This
continues a trend in the models that was noted yesterday moving
the center of the ridge southward. While it`s a subtle change,
it does open the door for perhaps more coverage of thunderstorms
on Friday.

Surface high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Thursday should move farther offshore Friday. Southerly wind
behind this departing high should lead to rising temperatures
and dewpoints across the Carolinas. Thursday`s inland highs
should reach the mid 90s, with upper 90s expected on Friday as
850 mb temps rise to +21C. This is just above the 90th
percentile value for early July. Combined with dewpoints poking
into the mid 70s by Friday, it`s likely we`ll have heat indices
high enough (105-109 F) to warrant a Heat Advisory for inland
locations. South to southeast winds should keep coastal high
temps both days ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Ridging should be strong enough Thursday to keep the atmosphere
capped and stable. By Friday, the weakening ridge and continued
increases in low level temperatures and dewpoints could allow
some afternoon storms to pop inland. Friday`s forecast PoPs
range from 10 percent on the coast to around 30 percent west of
I-95.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front should cross the North Carolina mountains on Saturday,
likely stalling across the central portions of the Carolinas
through Sunday. The upper level ridge should remain centered
just to our south, but enough southwesterly flow should occur
between the ridge axis and a trough over the Great Lakes to
advect any inland convection that develops along the front
toward our area. Saturday`s forecast PoPs range from 20 percent
on the coast to 50 percent west of I-95. By Sunday convective
potential grows larger near the coast from a combination of
morning marine convection drifting onshore, plus afternoon
inland storms moving eastward. Given large and growing 30 and
60 day rainfall deficits across the area, any rain is going to
be good news.

Hot and humid conditions will persist with Saturday likely seeing
a continued need for a Heat Advisory. Actual inland highs in
the upper 90s will feel more like 105 when factoring in
humidity. By Sunday temperatures may cool a few degrees given an
increase in clouds and thunderstorm coverage.

Increased forecast uncertainty creeps in for Monday and Tuesday
as models diverge with details of an upper trough digging
across the northern Plains and Great Lakes, plus a cut off upper
low that may retrograde between Bermuda and the Carolinas. The
upper ridge just to south appears it will remain the dominant
weather feature for us, but the old decaying front stalled
inland and daily seabreezes/landbreezes should still be enough
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Inland highs poking
back into the mid 90s plus humidity could approach Heat
Advisory criteria again.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Predominant VFR. Onshore flow could produce a few MVFR clouds
along the coast this evening. Any restrictions will be isolated
and brief; not including this in the TAFs at this time due to
low confidence. Calm winds overnight will bring a chance of fog
inland. Confidence is low regarding fog as dew point
depressions remain large today. Coastal areas will keep a light
onshore wind

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend as chances for convection
return.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...E to ESE winds dominate at 10-15kts today,
decreasing to 5-10kts by tonight. Seas come in at 1-3ft. Biggest
story here is that swells from Major Hurricane Beryl arrive today.
Look for long period 1ft southeasterly swells at 15-17 seconds.
Other swell sets include a 2-3ft set out of the ENE at 5-7
seconds.

Thursday through Sunday Night...High pressure centered just off
the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday will gradually move farther out
to sea Friday through the weekend. This will provide a light
generally southerly wind across the Carolinas. A cold front
approaching the region from the west likely won`t make it down
to the coastline, stalling across the interior portions of
the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday.

There should be an increasing potential for showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal and offshore waters Saturday
and Sunday. These won`t be directly linked to afternoon and
evening thunderstorms inland and should have coverage peaks
during the overnight and morning hours, opposite of what we
usually see inland.

Sea heights around 3 feet are expected through the period,
enhanced Thursday and Thursday night by long period southeast
swell that was produced several days ago by Hurricane Beryl. Now
that Beryl is south of Hispaniola, this swell should end here
Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/IGB