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226
FXUS62 KILM 010543
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through Monday bringing a reprieve from the
heat and humidity into mid week. Excessive heat is likely to
return again though late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly quiet across the area as of 1:30 AM EDT. A cluster of
thunderstorms linger over Sampson and Duplin Counties, with the
storm motion fluctuating between pushing eastward and
southeastward. Bladen and Pender Counties stand the best chance
at catching some of this activity over the next hour or two.

Elsewhere, another lobe of mid-level vorticity looks to eject
out of the Pee Dee region and push towards the coast this
morning. The forcing isn`t really that strong here, and despite
what is essentially a tropical airmass, there is some dry air
between 300-500mb. Conveniently, the last few KLTX scans show
some isolated showers popping up in parts of the Pee Dee and
Robeson County, which might be signs of this lobe of vorticity
maturing and starting its movement. No significant rising motion
on GOES-16 though, at least not yet.

Finally, along the coast, some showers are pushing onshore,
mostly west of Cape Fear. High-resolution guidance shows this
overall lull continuing over the next couple of hours, but
convection should pick up more leading into sunrise this
morning. We`ll see how this turns out.

Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Pre frontal trough lighting up this afternoon just to
the northwest poised to move into the area in the next little bit as
more sporadic  convection is slowly developing elsewhere. This line
will struggle in time as it presses south with less than conducive
conditions aloft but eventually will make it through. The severe
potential not overly impressive with little shear in place and the
instability of course wanes in time as well. A second line/area of
convection will move across early Monday AM with the actual front
and press south. Its worth noting the higher pops overall tonight
represent the possibility convection fills in somewhat between two
expected pushes. The NPW/Heat Advisory will continue but may need to
be cancelled early with any sustained areas of convection with its
heavy lifting already accomplished.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably cooler and drier through the period

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A rather unseasonably cooler and drier air mass is expected
to prevail through the period as high pressure builds in from the
north behind a departing cold front to the south. No major changes
were made to the previous forecast but we did trend dewpoints down a
tad with 50s likely inland, which will certainly be a nice
reprieve from the recent mugginess. We`re still carrying some
rain chances Monday night, mainly near the coast, and then along
the SC coast Tue/Tue night where moisture convergence will be
greatest.

Temps should stay below normal through the period with highs mostly
in the mid 80s Tuesday and lows mainly in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
*Excessive heat/humidity returns late week

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure at the surface will shift off the eastern
seaboard Wednesday with a cold front possibly approaching Sunday.
Meanwhile ridging should also prevail aloft. This pattern suggests
high temps and near to below normal rain chances most of the period.
Heat indices of 105+ degrees are possible inland starting Thursday
but more likely across the entire area starting Friday. Thus,
Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will be pretty
likely Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lull in the activity continues to open the 06Z TAF period, with
ceilings bouncing between VFR and MVFR. May have more scattered
convection that picks up before sunrise this morning, with TEMPO
groups for TSRA kicking in from 08-12Z along the coast.
Meanwhile, may have some isolated showers with a few rumbles of
thunder accompany KFLO/KLBT within the next hour or two, but
confidence is shaky there. Coastal terminals may have a second
round of convection this afternoon in the 16-19Z window. More
widespread MVFR should settle in over the next few hours,
lingering through the majority of the TAF period. IFR
visibilities possible in TSRA. Winds southwesterly now, with a
few gusts at or above 20kts at the coast. Cold front will slowly
move through today, causing gradual veering of the winds to
westerly to northwesterly to northeasterly.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement to VFR late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. From there, VFR should dominate through
the end of the work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots perhaps
wobbling a knot or two above will develop and or persist tonight
ahead of the front. Winds will shift to northeast during the
day Monday and increase ending up around 15 knots. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet throughout the period.

Monday night through Friday...A cold front will move through
the central Carolina nearshore waters Monday with high pressure
building from the north through Wednesday. The high will then
shift farther east bringing a return of more typical summertime
winds from the south. Winds and possibly even seas could reach
marginal Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night/early Tuesday
behind the departing cold front as high pressure builds in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over
the past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate
drought (D1) exists across portions of eastern North and South
Carolina. This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall
totals running well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather.
Fortunately, widespread soaking rain appears possible tonight
with 1 to 2 inches generally forecast. Hot and mostly dry
weather should then redevelop late in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/SHK
FIRE WEATHER...ILM