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458
FXUS61 KLWX 090128
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
928 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will move through the area on Sunday. Low
pressure may develop off the coast during the first half of the
week. High pressure will build in from the west by Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front bisects the Great Lakes this evening, south of a
closed upper low over Ontario. A subtle shortwave trough over
West Virginia is responsible for an area of mid and high level
clouds. Some breaks in the clouds are possible through the
night, but they will begin to thicken toward sunrise with
moisture advection ahead of the approaching front. The front,
along with some light showers, will reach the Appalachians
between 5 and 8 AM. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s for much of the area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front will track southeast over the forecast area
throughout the day on Sunday. Lack of moisture aloft will cause
most of the showers to fall apart as they move east of the
mountains. As the front reaches southern Maryland during the
afternoon, there may be enough instability for showers to
redevelop, along with a possible thunderstorm. High
temperatures will get into the upper 70s to mid 80s for most
while those at higher elevations stay in the 60s to low 70s.
Breezy northwest winds will gust 20 to 30 mph at times in the
afternoon before diminishing overnight.

Temperatures dip into the 50s to 60s areawide Sunday night as dry
conditions return. High pressure will build in over the region on
Monday as winds remain out of the northwest. Most of the area is
expected to be dry, but an upper level trough pivoting over the area
will bring a slight chance of precipitation to those along the
Alleghenies and in the southernmost portions of the area. High
temperatures will be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front
with highs in the 70s (60s mountains) for most. Overnight low
temperatures will fall into the 40s to 50s for most with only those
in the metro areas staying in the low 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday
and Wednesday before moving further offshore later in the week. For
Tuesday, mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s for most areas aside from the mountains where mid to
upper 60s will be more common. A weak shortwave may approach the far
western areas on Wednesday afternoon and bring a few light showers
across mainly the Allegheny Front, otherwise most areas will stay
dry with highs in the low to mid 80s with some areas even nearing 90
degrees. The higher terrain will be a bit cooler, in the low to mid
70s.

A warmer and more moist airmass returns late in the week as high
pressure scoots further offshore. A cold front approaches from the
Great Lakes region Thursday into early Friday, with showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms possible on Thursday and slightly better
chances moving in on Friday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s
with a more apparent summertime airmass settling in for the time-
being. Overall, the front passage looks to be fairly lacking of
moisture but cannot rule out some precipitation with it.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With high pressure sliding to the southeast overnight, winds are
already showing signs of becoming southwest or south. VFR
conditions are expected through the night with only mid or high
level clouds. A weak cold front will pass through Sunday
morning, with southwesterly winds eventually becoming
northwesterly during the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
light showers may cross the area with the front, but expected
limited coverage and impact do not warrant a TAF mention at this
time. Any ceilings will likely be AOA FL045 at the TAF sites
which will clear during the afternoon. Northwesterly winds may
gust to around 25 kt at times behind the front before
diminishing with sunset Sunday evening.

Winds remain out of the north/northwest Monday with VFR
conditions expected.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with only a few
showers possible on Wednesday west of most of the terminals. Winds
out of the northwest will eventually turn more south-southwesterly
by Wednesday, ushering in an even warmer airmass.
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&&

.MARINE...
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With high pressure sliding to the southeast tonight, winds are
taking on a southwesterly or southerly component. Increased flow
and channeling will result in marginal Small Craft Advisory
conditions over the wider waters of the middle bay and mouth of
the Potomac late tonight, with an advisory going into effect at
2 AM. As a cold front approaches and crosses Sunday,
southwesterly winds will increase across all waters during the
morning before becoming northwesterly by afternoon. An advisory
is in effect for all waters through 9 PM, although there is
some uncertainty how quickly winds will diminish Sunday night.

Lighter westerly winds are expected Monday.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Tuesday into Wednesday as an area of high
pressure impacts the Mid-Atlantic. Winds out of the northwest on
Tuesday will turn more southwesterly over the waters on
Wednesday.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal anomalies remain above normal, and with winds briefly
becoming southwesterly or southerly overnight, a further
increase is possible. Sensitive locations like Annapolis,
Straits Point, and DC SW Waterfront will be near minor flood
stage with the Sunday morning high tide cycle. After that, winds
take on a west or northwest direction behind a cold front, and
no further flooding is expected through midweek.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-
     537-543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/ADM
MARINE...ADS/AVS/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS