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121
FXUS63 KMKX 251613 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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-  River flooding and high water levels will continue over the
   next several days.

-  Heat index values into the middle 90s are possible today.

-  Strong to severe storms should remain to the south of the
   area later this afternoon and tonight, with strong
   thunderstorms returning later on Friday into Friday night.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Thunderstorms have moved well southeast of the area, with the
main cold front still working its way southeast through the
area. There are some low stratocumulus that are lingering in
parts of the area, with the very moist low levels still in place
ahead of the cold front. These should gradually scatter out as
winds and mixing pick up by midday into this afternoon. Very
warm and humid conditions are expected ahead of the front, with
heat index values possibly reaching into the middle 90s in some
areas.

CAMs suggest that the front will be southeast of the area
by the middle to late afternoon hours. They develop new strong
to severe convection along the front in northern or central
Illinois by later this afternoon, within a very unstable airmass
with 35 to 40 knots or more of 0 to 6 km bulk shear. CAMs have
been consistent with the strong to severe convection remaining
south of the area, and forecast soundings have a cap with the
warm temperatures in the low levels. Thus, will maintain very
low PoPs near the Illinois border for now. Will watch southern
portions of the area to make sure cold front exits the area by
middle to late afternoon.

Wood
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today and Tonight:

Atmospheric conditions will change over most of the forecast
area after 15Z today. CAPE and overall moisture will be meager
after this time per models, as surface wind shifts more
westerly. Therefore, this afternoon and evening should be
generally dry. Temperatures will quickly rise by this afternoon
with many locations approaching the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Southern Wisconsin actually looks to be in a pinch this evening
and tonight between showers and thunderstorms to our south over
northern Illinois and another shortwave approaching from our
west. This wave should be monitored tonight, as cloud cover
increases. There also looks to be a weak surface boundary
setting up across the forecast area later tonight, which may
generate a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm, mostly near
Lake Michigan in far southeast Wisconsin.

KPL

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

Shortwave moves east Wednesday morning and early afternoon, as
drier air begins to advect into Wisconsin. Heights aloft then push
any energy well north of the forecast area. All indications are
that shortwave ridging will result in dry weather later Wednesday
through Thursday. In fact, it should be dry into early Friday
across southern Wisconsin.

Flow aloft then becomes more southwesterly on Friday with
increasing moisture aided by yet another low level jet for Friday
afternoon and evening. There also looks to be lift in the mid and
upper levels with another trough approaching Wisconsin from the
west. The result should be more thunderstorms, some could be
strong. It will also be quite warm on Friday.

There should also be a surface cold front moving through sometime
Friday night into early Saturday. Thinking the instability will
stick around for Saturday to keep some shower and thunderstorm
chances. Will have to keep an eye out for another shortwave aloft
during the day Saturday, possibly supporting steeper lapse rates
(and hence instability). Temperatures should be a little cooler
on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday in the extended then look dry and pleasant
across southern Wisconsin. No weather threats to consider at this
time, but will take a closer look as we approach the upcoming
weekend.

KPL

&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Gusty southwest winds will become west and weaken somewhat this
afternoon, as a cold front moves through the area. Lingering
MVFR ceilings should gradually scatter out or rise above 3000
feet AGL into this afternoon. Any thunderstorm development
with the cold front should remain south of the area later this
afternoon into tonight.

Light northwest winds tonight will become north to northwest on
Wednesday. May see northeast winds for terminals near Lake
Michigan by Wednesday afternoon. High clouds from thunderstorms
to the south may cover the area tonight into early Wednesday
morning, before scattering out in the afternoon.

Wood
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the nearshore waters, southwest winds may gust to 25 knots
or so until early this afternoon, before weakening somewhat and
veering west, as a cold front moves through. Time period for the
gusts will be too short for a Small Craft Advisory, but will
monitor trends.

Gusty southwest winds will become lighter and veer to the west
this afternoon over the rest of the lake, as a cold front moves
through. There are some chances for showers and thunderstorms
later this afternoon into tonight across far southern portions
of the lake with the front.

Winds will shift to the north later tonight into Wednesday,
becoming gusty at times. Lighter winds return Wednesday night
into Thursday night, as high pressure around 30.0 inches shifts
across the region. Increasing south winds are then forecast for
Friday, becoming southwest to west on Saturday, as a cold front
moves through the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase during this period.

Wood
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WI...None.
LM...None.
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&&

$$

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