Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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350 FXUS61 KOKX 151958 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak surface trough over the area this afternoon will dissipate tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will move across Sunday morning, then remain in place off the Northeast coast through Wednesday and shifts south to off the Mid Atlantic coast into next weekend as disturbances pass to the north Friday and Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As an upper level trough to the east pulls away, a weak trailing mid level vort max in its wake and weak sfc trough reflection were helping produce sct-bkn Cu across the NYC metro area and most of NJ. These clouds are already thinning out and should dissipate into early this evening, with a mostly clear night. This plus some CAA as high pressure builds in from the NW plus diminishing winds will lead to good radiational cooling and mostly below normal low temps, ranging from the upper 40s in the interior valleys/Long Island Pine Barrens, to the 50s most elsewhere, to the lower 60s invof NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Heights will continue to rise aloft. High pressure at the surface will move overhead by late Sunday morning, and then pass offshore during Sunday afternoon and evening, where it should become nearly stationary and remain in control through the week. The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds. Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than Saturday, with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. As the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up and moisture increases. Dewpoints quickly return to the upper 50s inland and lower/mid 60s closer to the coast on Monday, with high temps in the mid/upper 80s from NYC west, 80-85 for NYC and most of southern CT, and 75-80 for most of Long Island and SE CT. This should be the last day before a heat wave sets up for the rest of the week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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**Key Points** * A long duration heat wave is expected Tuesday through next Saturday. * The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to around 102 during this time. * Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to the lower and mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the lower to mid 60s. A strong deep layered ridge will be positioned over the east coast by Monday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend. The ridge will flatten with the upper flow becoming more zonal across the region Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will initially be anchored off the northeast coast, and then shift to the south and be positions off the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday through Saturday. This is in response to a northern stream upper trough and surface low tracking across southern Canada into northern New England. Low level flow on the west side of the high pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow through much of the extended period. This will allow for the advection of both low level moisture and warm air. At this time the peak of the heat, and the highest heat indices, are likely to occur Thursday and Friday. With the anomalous strength of the ridge there is a chance that temperatures across the interior may even peak at near 100 degrees. Also, there will not be much relief at night as overnight lows drop into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s, especially Thursday night and Friday night. Also, humidity levels will remain elevated with dew points mostly in the lower to mid 60s. However, with the upper flow becoming more zonal there will be increased chances for waves of energy to move across the region and produce chances for increased clouds and afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Until then with the strong ridge these disturbances will be tracking west and north of the area. With the long duration of the heat and humidity advisories will likely be issued for this event. Also, with the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one`s health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area from the north into Sunday. VFR. N-NW winds around 10 kt into this evening. Light northerly winds tonight before gradually shifting NE-E, then southeast on Sunday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts to 20kt possible through 22z. Winds may vary NE to N at KLGA for the rest of the afternoon. Chance of sea breeze shifting winds south for a few hours starting near 21z. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday through Thursday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters thru Thu night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Latest beach reports indicated no more than a moderate rip current risk today. The moderate risk should continue on Sunday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/MET NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JC MARINE...BG/MET HYDROLOGY...BG/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET