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374
FXUS61 KOKX 151505
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1105 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure building from the northwest today will pass across
Sunday morning and then head offshore by Sunday evening. The
high will remain in control through late week. A few weak
disturbances may approach from the north next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As an upper level trough shifts east this morning, heights rise
aloft as an upper ridge builds over the eastern US. At the
surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest. The air
mass building in will be drier and a bit cooler than the past
several days. Highs today will likely top out in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. With dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s, the
air will have a comfortable feel.

Given the dry air mass and mostly clear skies, with no more than
some thin high clouds, radiational cooling tonight should help
the usual cool spots get down to the upper 40s/lower 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heights continue to rise aloft through Monday night. High pressure
at the surface will move overhead early Sunday and then offshore by
Sunday evening, but will remain in control through the week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy
rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday
afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than Saturday,
with the same low dewpoints. As the high shifts offshore later on
Sunday a return flow sets up and moisture increases. Dewpoints
return to the mid 60s on Monday, with highs in the 80s for most.
This will likely be the last day before a heat wave sets up for the
rest of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Key Point**

* A long duration heat wave is expected during most of next week
  beginning on Tuesday and lasting until Friday or Saturday. Heat
  index values of greater than 95 degrees are expected for much of
  the area during this time.

A strengthening deep layer ridge will be positioned over the East
Coast by Tuesday with a surface high pressure system over the
Western Atlantic. Low level flow on the west side of the high
pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow through
much of the extended period. This will allow for the advection of
both low level moisture and warm air.

The upper level ridge continues strengthening in intensity through
the middle and end of the week, eventually peaking in strength by
Thursday with 500mb heights between 594 and 600dam. This highly
anomalous strength in the upper level ridge will allow for a
prolonged heat event to take place over the entire Northeast. By
Tuesday, surface highs will be in the 90s for much of the interior
portions of the area with coastal locations in the middle to upper
80s.

Heat persists through the week, eventually allowing
temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 90s for interior
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and southern CT. It
would not be that surprising if some locations hit 100 degrees,
especially into Thursday and Friday. Because this is a fairly early
season heat wave, relatively cooler waters only in the 60s will
shelter Long Island and immediate coastal Connecticut from
experiencing the worst of the heat, but may result in some enhanced
surface moisture over these areas. Heat index values will likely be
greater than 95 degrees during each afternoon from Tuesday through
at least Friday for everywhere except Long Island. This may
eventually facilitate heat headlines.

Given the duration and intensity of the anticipated heat, it is
important to take precautions to protect one`s health, particularly
those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-
sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by
the extent of this heat as well.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the area from the north into Sunday.

VFR.

N winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt through early afternoon. Light
northerly winds tonight before gradually shifting east, then
southeast on Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional, especially at KTEB. End time of
prevailing gusts may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are
expected on all waters thru early next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Latest beach reports verify the current forecast of no more than
a moderate rip current risk today. The moderate risk should
continue on Sunday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...BG/JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG